FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock prediction · J1 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC TokyoDrawMito Hollyhock

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 07:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Tokyo 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Tokyo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Tokyo 57%, draw 24%, Mito Hollyhock 19%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on FC Tokyo v Mito HollyhockBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FC Tokyo win57%

Draw24%

Mito Hollyhock win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 07:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueAjinomoto Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Tokyo

Mito Hollyhock

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc tokyo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market72%

Us57%

~~Market~~72%

We make FC Tokyo a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock~~1.78 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 24 v 9~~4 v 17

~~The market · FC Tokyo win~~72% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Tokyo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Tokyo win	57%	72%	−15
Draw	24%	18%	+6
Mito Hollyhock win	19%	10%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	45%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
FC Tokyo or draw	81%	90%	−9
FC Tokyo clean sheet	40%	–	–
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 6.9 6.1 2.9 1 11.6 11.1 5.1 2 10.4 9.7 4.5 3 6.2 5.7 2.7 4 2.8 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Tokyo down, Mito Hollyhock across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 J1 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Tokyo at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mito Hollyhock away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for FC Tokyo, 0.93 for Mito Hollyhock. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MIT 1–0 FCT · FCT 5–2 MIT · MIT 1–1 FCT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 5 Sept

FC TOKYO

WWWWWD2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 0–0

MITO HOLLYHOCK

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Machida Zelvia	12	+20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	+19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	+6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	+7	23
6	Kashima	12	+4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	+6	19
8	Urawa	11	−3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	+4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	12	−10	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	−3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	−7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	−8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	−12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	−8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	−12	6