FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

FC Tokyo 0–0 Kashiwa Reysol FC TOKYO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Tokyo win~~44%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.843

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.854

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Tokyo win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Tokyo was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–31
1′KICK-OFF FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Hayato Inamura · FC Tokyo
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Yudai Konishi · Kashiwa Reysol
45′HALF-TIME FC Tokyo 0–0 Kashiwa Reysol
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Keita Endo · Off: Koya Yuruki
45′SECOND HALF FC Tokyo 0–0 Kashiwa Reysol
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Yoshio Koizumi · Off: Hinata Yamauchi
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' FC Tokyo win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FC Tokyo win 36%)
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Wataru Harada · Off: Sachiro Toshima
52′We said FC Tokyo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–43–25
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–45–24
57′11 shots for FC Tokyo, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 30–46–23
59′We said FC Tokyo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–23
60′FC Tokyo have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 29–49–22
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Tokyo · On: Kota Tawaratsumida · Off: Kashif Bangnagande
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Yusuke Segawa · Off: Shota Fujio
68′We said FC Tokyo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' FC Tokyo win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Tokyo · On: Teruhito Nakagawa · Off: Marcelo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Tokyo · On: Fuki Yamada · Off: Kein Sato
74′We said FC Tokyo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–15
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Hirokazu Ishihara · FC Tokyo
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kashiwa Reysol · On: Mao Hosoya · Off: Tojiro Kubo
80′We said FC Tokyo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' FC Tokyo win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Yoshio Koizumi · Kashiwa Reysol
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Alexander Scholz · FC Tokyo
85′We said FC Tokyo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–85–7
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Wataru Harada · Kashiwa Reysol
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Tokyo · On: Rio Omori · Off: Soma Anzai
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Tokyo · On: Dani Gómez · Off: Motoki Nagakura
91′We said FC Tokyo at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' FC Tokyo win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
92′17 shots for FC Tokyo, 10 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 3–94–3
94′Full time, 0–0. We called FC Tokyo at 44% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Keita Endo · Kashiwa Reysol
FTFULL TIME FC Tokyo 0–0 Kashiwa Reysol
FTFC Tokyo 0–0 Kashiwa Reysol · FC Tokyo win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Tokyo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Tokyo 44%, draw 25%, Kashiwa Reysol 31%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on FC Tokyo v Kashiwa ReysolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

FC Tokyo win44%

Draw25%

Kashiwa Reysol win31%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAjinomoto Stadium

RefereeKoki Nagamine

Line-ups

FC Tokyo

4-4-2

Kashiwa Reysol

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Tokyo

Kashiwa Reysol

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Tokyo	10	+13	23
5	Kashiwa Reysol	10	+5	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Tokyo

4-4-2

81 Kim Seung-Gyu

22 H. Ishihara

24 A. Scholz

4 H. Inamura

6 K. Bangnagande

10 K. Sato

27 Kyota Tokiwa

8 T. Ko

7 S. Anzai

9 Marcelo Ryan

26 M. Nagakura

Coach · R. Matsuhashi

Substitutes

1 · H. Tanaka

44 · K. Suzuki

99 · Dani Gómez

71 · F. Yamada

33 · K. Tawaratsumida

3 · M. Morishige

20 · S. Nagano

39 · T. Nakagawa

15 · R. Omori

Kashiwa Reysol

3-4-2-1

29 K. Nagai

28 S. Toshima

4 T. Koga

2 H. Mitsumaru

24 T. Kubo

21 Y. Konishi

39 N. Nakagawa

44 K. Yuba

87 H. Yamauchi

16 K. Yuruki

15 S. Fujio

Coach · Ricardo Rodríguez

Substitutes

5 · K. Endo

30 · Shusuke Furuya

42 · W. Harada

40 · R. Harakawa

9 · M. Hosoya

8 · Y. Koizumi

1 · H. Saruta

20 · Y. Segawa

26 · D. Sugioka

Our number · fc tokyo winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make FC Tokyo a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol~~1.51 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 21~~3 v 5

~~The market · FC Tokyo win~~49% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Tokyo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Tokyo win	44%	49%	−5
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Kashiwa Reysol win	31%	26%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	52%	54%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
FC Tokyo or draw	69%	74%	−5
FC Tokyo clean sheet	30%	–	–
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.7 7.9 4.9 2.0 1 9.7 12.0 7.3 3.0 2 7.4 8.9 5.5 2.3 3 3.7 4.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Tokyo down, Kashiwa Reysol across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,672 J1 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Tokyo at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kashiwa Reysol away: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for FC Tokyo, 1.23 for Kashiwa Reysol. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAS 1–3 FCT · FCT 0–2 KAS · KAS 1–0 FCT · FCT 1–1 KAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept

FC TOKYO

DWWWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 4–0

KASHIWA REYSOL

LLWWWL0–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 4–2 · 4–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	+19	23
2	Machida Zelvia	10	+15	23
3	FC Tokyo	10	+13	23
4	Vissel Kobe	10	+8	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	10	+5	21
6	Kashima	10	+5	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	+5	16
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	+4	16
9	Urawa	10	−4	15
10	Shimizu S-pulse	10	−1	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	10	−3	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	−4	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	−7	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	−2	9
15	V-varen Nagasaki	10	−7	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	10	−8	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	10	−5	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	−8	7
19	JEF United Chiba	10	−11	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	−14	4