Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 08:31

Fagiano Okayama 0–3 Vissel Kobe VISSEL KOBE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vissel Kobe win~~43%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.481

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.599

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vissel Kobe win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vissel Kobe 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 29–28–43
1′KICK-OFF Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe
4′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Lucas Marcos Meireles · Fagiano Okayama
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Vissel Kobe win 35%)
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Oberdan Alionço de Lima · Fagiano Okayama
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vissel Kobe · On: Yuan Iwamoto · Off: Katsuya Nagato
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fagiano Okayama · On: Léo Gaúcho · Off: Lucas Marcos Meireles
45′SECOND HALF Fagiano Okayama 0–0 Vissel Kobe
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Vissel Kobe win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Léo Gaúcho · Fagiano Okayama
48′We said Vissel Kobe at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 5–19–76
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Fagiano Okayama 0–1 Vissel Kobe
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Vissel Kobe win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Vissel Kobe win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
49′49′: Yuya Osako on the scoresheet for Vissel Kobe, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–76
49′HALF-TIME Fagiano Okayama 0–0 Vissel Kobe
50′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 5–18–77
56′We said Vissel Kobe at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Fagiano Okayama 0–2 Vissel Kobe
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Vissel Kobe win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
60′Vissel Kobe ahead on 58′ through Yuya Osako. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
61′Vissel Kobe ahead on 56′ through Yuya Osako. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
64′We said Vissel Kobe at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Fagiano Okayama 0–3 Vissel Kobe
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Yoshitake Suzuki · Fagiano Okayama
65′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
66′Matheus Thuler scores for Vissel Kobe on 64′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Fagiano Okayama · On: Ryoga Sato · Off: Oberdan Alionço de Lima
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Fagiano Okayama · On: Kamiya Yuta · Off: Towa Yamane
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vissel Kobe · On: Ren Komatsu · Off: Yuya Osako
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vissel Kobe · On: Jean Patric Lima dos Reis · Off: Yoshinori Muto
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Fagiano Okayama · On: Kota Kawano · Off: Ataru Esaka
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vissel Kobe · On: Nanasei Iino · Off: Erik Nascimento de Lima
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fagiano Okayama · On: Noah Kenshin Browne · Off: Na Sang-Ho
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Vissel Kobe · On: Yuta Goke · Off: Gotoku Sakai
FTFULL TIME Fagiano Okayama 0–3 Vissel Kobe
FTFagiano Okayama 0–3 Vissel Kobe · Vissel Kobe win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vissel Kobe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fagiano Okayama 29%, draw 27%, Vissel Kobe 43%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Fagiano Okayama v Vissel KobeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fagiano Okayama win29%

Draw27%

Vissel Kobe win43%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 05:55

RoundMatchday 10

VenueJFE Harenokuni Stadium

Line-ups

Fagiano Okayama

3-4-2-1

Vissel Kobe

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fagiano Okayama

Vissel Kobe

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · J-League Cup

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
11	Fagiano Okayama	9	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fagiano Okayama

3-4-2-1

1 Lennart Moser

44 Soichiro Mori

48 Yugo Tatsuta

43 Yoshitake Suzuki

51 Kosuke Shirai

41 Eiji Miyamoto

80 Oberdan Alionço

88 Towa Yamane

10 Sang-Ho Na

8 Ataru Esaka

99 Lucão

Coach · Takashi Kiyama

Substitutes

9 · Léo Gaúcho

19 · Ryoga Sato

33 · Yuta Kamiya

20 · Kota Kawano

79 · Noah Kenshin Browne

52 · Taro Hamada

55 · Yota Fujii

7 · Ryo Takeuchi

28 · Masaya Matsumoto

Vissel Kobe

4-3-3

71 Shuichi Gonda

24 Gotoku Sakai

4 Tetsushi Yamakawa

3 Thuler

15 Diego

7 Yosuke Ideguchi

25 Yuya Kuwasaki

94 Erik

11 Yoshinori Muto

10 Yuya Osako

41 Katsuya Nagato

Coach · Michael Skibbe

Substitutes

23 · Yuan Iwamoto

29 · Ren Komatsu

26 · Jean Patric

2 · Nanasei Iino

5 · Yuta Goke

1 · Daiya Maekawa

16 · Caetano

44 · Mitsuki Hidaka

20 · Kota Watanabe

Our number · vissel kobe winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market37%

Us43%

~~Market~~37%

We make Vissel Kobe a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe~~1.06 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 19~~11 v 6

~~The market · Vissel Kobe win~~37% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vissel Kobe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fagiano Okayama win	29%	34%	−5
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Vissel Kobe win	43%	37%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	45%	−2
Both teams to score	48%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	25%	−3
Fagiano Okayama or draw	57%	63%	−6
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet	26%	–	–
Vissel Kobe clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.3 12.1 8.2 3.7 1 9.4 12.8 8.5 3.9 2 5.0 6.7 4.5 2.0 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fagiano Okayama down, Vissel Kobe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,670 J1 League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fagiano Okayama at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Vissel Kobe away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Fagiano Okayama, 1.35 for Vissel Kobe. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 05:25. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VIS 0–3 FAG · FAG 1–4 VIS · FAG 1–2 VIS · VIS 2–0 FAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 29 Aug

FAGIANO OKAYAMA

LWWWLL1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

VISSEL KOBE

WWWWWL1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	+19	23
2	FC Tokyo	10	+13	23
3	Kashiwa Reysol	10	+5	21
4	Machida Zelvia	9	+12	20
5	Kashima	10	+5	19
6	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	+5	16
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	+4	16
9	Urawa	10	−4	15
10	Shimizu S-pulse	10	−1	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	9	0	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	−4	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	−7	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	−2	9
15	V-varen Nagasaki	10	−7	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	10	−8	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	−2	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	−8	7
19	JEF United Chiba	10	−11	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	−14	4