Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Mito Hollyhock FAGIANO OKAYAMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fagiano Okayama win~~47%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.429

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.331

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fagiano Okayama win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fagiano Okayama was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–27
1′KICK-OFF Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock
41′Fagiano Okayama have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 38–38–24
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Fagiano Okayama win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Fagiano Okayama 0–0 Mito Hollyhock
45′SECOND HALF Fagiano Okayama 0–0 Mito Hollyhock
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Fagiano Okayama win 38%)
48′We said Fagiano Okayama at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–42–23
50′We said Fagiano Okayama at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
52′We published Fagiano Okayama at 47%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–5
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Fagiano Okayama 1–0 Mito Hollyhock
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Fagiano Okayama win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Fagiano Okayama win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 44%)
54′52′: Ataru Esaka on the scoresheet for Fagiano Okayama, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–4
59′We published Fagiano Okayama at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Mito Hollyhock · On: Keisuke Tada · Off: Ryo Nemoto
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Mito Hollyhock · On: Hayata Yamamoto · Off: Jin Okumura
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Haruka Motoyama · Fagiano Okayama
64′We published Fagiano Okayama at 47%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
64′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 2–0 · 97–2–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Mito Hollyhock
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Fagiano Okayama win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
65′Fagiano Okayama ahead on 65′ through Ataru Esaka. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Fagiano Okayama · On: Kamiya Yuta · Off: Ataru Esaka
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Fagiano Okayama · On: Kosuke Shirai · Off: Masaya Matsumoto
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Mito Hollyhock · On: Patryck Ferreira · Off: Chihiro Kato
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Mito Hollyhock · On: Motoki Nishihara · Off: Kaito Taniguchi
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fagiano Okayama · On: Yota Fujii · Off: Na Sang-Ho
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fagiano Okayama · On: Soichiro Mori · Off: Towa Yamane
81′We published Fagiano Okayama at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Mito Hollyhock · On: Rei Ieizumi · Off: Yu Funabashi
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Fagiano Okayama · On: Kota Kawano · Off: Lucas Marcos Meireles
95′Full time, 2–0. We called Fagiano Okayama at 47% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Mito Hollyhock
FTFagiano Okayama 2–0 Mito Hollyhock · Fagiano Okayama win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fagiano Okayama are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fagiano Okayama 47%, draw 26%, Mito Hollyhock 27%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Fagiano Okayama v Mito HollyhockBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Fagiano Okayama win47%

Draw26%

Mito Hollyhock win27%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueJFE Harenokuni Stadium

RefereeKoichiro Fukushima

Line-ups

Fagiano Okayama

3-4-2-1

Mito Hollyhock

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fagiano Okayama

Mito Hollyhock

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Fagiano Okayama	10	−3	13
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fagiano Okayama

3-4-2-1

1 L. Moser

26 H. Motoyama

48 Y. Tatsuta

43 Y. Suzuki

28 M. Matsumoto

41 E. Miyamoto

80 Oberdan

88 T. Yamane

10 Na Sang-Ho

8 A. Esaka

99 Lucão

Coach · T. Kiyama

Substitutes

55 · Y. Fujii

52 · T. Hamada

33 · Y. Kamiya

20 · K. Kawano

9 · Léo Gaúcho

44 · S. Mori

19 · R. Sato

51 · K. Shirai

7 · R. Takeuchi

Mito Hollyhock

4-4-2

27 J. Słowik

25 T. Mase

15 Y. Kimoto

17 K. Itakura

16 Y. Tamura

30 J. Okumura

38 Leonardo Hugo

20 Y. Funabashi

22 K. Taniguchi

9 R. Nemoto

8 C. Kato

Coach · D. Kimori

Substitutes

2 · M. Fofana

50 · R. Ieizumi

44 · M. Nishihara

34 · K. Nishikawa

3 · K. Osaki

33 · Patryck Ferreira

29 · K. Tada

39 · H. Yamamoto

24 · K. Yamazaki

Our number · fagiano okayama winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market53%

Us47%

~~Market~~53%

We make Fagiano Okayama a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock~~1.49 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~11 v 14

~~The market · Fagiano Okayama win~~53% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fagiano Okayama win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fagiano Okayama win	47%	53%	−6
Draw	26%	26%	0
Mito Hollyhock win	27%	20%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	47%	46%	+1
Both teams to score	51%	48%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	25%	+1
Fagiano Okayama or draw	73%	80%	−7
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet	34%	–	–
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.9 8.2 4.5 1 11.4 12.3 6.6 2.4 2 8.5 9.0 4.9 3 4.2 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fagiano Okayama down, Mito Hollyhock across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,672 J1 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fagiano Okayama at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mito Hollyhock away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Fagiano Okayama, 1.08 for Mito Hollyhock. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MIT 0–0 FAG · FAG 1–0 MIT · FAG 1–0 MIT · MIT 1–1 FAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept

FAGIANO OKAYAMA

WWWLLL2–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3

MITO HOLLYHOCK

WDLLLL4–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	+19	23
2	Machida Zelvia	10	+15	23
3	FC Tokyo	10	+13	23
4	Vissel Kobe	10	+8	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	10	+5	21
6	Kashima	10	+5	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	+5	16
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	+4	16
9	Urawa	10	−4	15
10	Shimizu S-pulse	10	−1	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	10	−3	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	−4	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	−7	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	−2	9
15	V-varen Nagasaki	10	−7	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	10	−8	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	10	−5	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	−8	7
19	JEF United Chiba	10	−11	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	−14	4