Fagiano Okayama v FC Tokyo prediction · J1 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fagiano OkayamaDrawFC Tokyo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 05:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Tokyo 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Tokyo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fagiano Okayama 32%, draw 27%, FC Tokyo 40%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Fagiano Okayama v FC TokyoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Fagiano Okayama win32%

Draw27%

FC Tokyo win40%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueCity Light Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fagiano Okayama

FC Tokyo

10Days since last match10

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc tokyo winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make FC Tokyo a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fagiano Okayama v FC Tokyo~~1.16 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 24~~10 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fagiano Okayama win	32%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
FC Tokyo win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Fagiano Okayama or draw	60%	–	–
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet	27%	–	–
FC Tokyo clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.7 10.9 7.3 3.3 1 9.5 12.9 8.4 3.7 2 5.6 7.3 4.8 2.2 3 2.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fagiano Okayama down, FC Tokyo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 J1 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fagiano Okayama at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Tokyo away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Fagiano Okayama, 1.33 for FC Tokyo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCT 3–1 FAG · FAG 1–0 FCT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept

FAGIANO OKAYAMA

WWLLLW3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–0

FC TOKYO

WWWWWD2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Machida Zelvia	12	+20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	+19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	+6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	+7	23
6	Kashima	12	+4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	+6	19
8	Urawa	11	−3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	+4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	12	−10	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	−3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	−7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	−8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	−12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	−8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	−12	6