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Cerezo Osaka v Yokohama F. Marinos

Cerezo Osaka

0–0Full time

Yokohama F. Marinos

J1 League · SAT 10 OCT · Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 08:32

Cerezo Osaka 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos CEREZO OSAKA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cerezo Osaka win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.857

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.814

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cerezo Osaka win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cerezo Osaka was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
1′KICK-OFF Cerezo Osaka v Yokohama F. Marinos
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Javi Hernández · Cerezo Osaka
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Ayumu Ohata · Cerezo Osaka
33′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Rikito Inoue · Cerezo Osaka
45′HALF-TIME Cerezo Osaka 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos
46′SECOND HALF Cerezo Osaka 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Jackson Irvine · Cerezo Osaka
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Cerezo Osaka · On: Travis Takahashi · Off: Javi Hernández
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Cerezo Osaka · On: Yota Komi · Off: Lucas Fernandes
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Takuto Kimura · Yokohama F. Marinos
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cerezo Osaka · On: Kosei Okazawa · Off: Yumeki Yokoyama
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cerezo Osaka · On: Shinji Kagawa · Off: Pablo Sabbag
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Daiya Tono · Off: Jun Amano
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Jordy Croux · Off: Ryo Miyaichi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Rio Nitta · Off: Kaina Tanimura
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: George Onaiwu · Off: Tomoki Kondo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Yokohama F. Marinos · On: Kei Chinen · Off: Kosuke Matsumura
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Shinji Kagawa · Cerezo Osaka
FTFULL TIME Cerezo Osaka 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos
FTCerezo Osaka 0–0 Yokohama F. Marinos · Cerezo Osaka win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cerezo Osaka win39%

Draw24%

Yokohama F. Marinos win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 06:00

Venue · Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cerezo Osaka

3-4-2-1

23 Kosuke Nakamura

27 Dion Cools

4 Rikito Inoue

15 Javier Hernández

16 Hayato Okuda

10 Shunta Tanaka

36 Jackson Irvine

66 Ayumu Ohata

77 Lucas Fernandes

14 Yumeki Yokoyama

19 Pablo Sabbag

Coach · Pablo Machin

Substitutes

97 · Travis Takahashi

41 · Yota Komi

28 · Kosei Okazawa

8 · Shinji Kagawa

31 · Koto Abe

2 · Takumi Nakamura

7 · Satoki Uejo

17 · Reiya Sakata

45 · Koki Nagasoe

Yokohama F. Marinos

4-2-3-1

21 Hiroki Ilkura

34 Takuto Kimura

17 Jeisson Quiñónes

33 Kosei Suwama

25 Toichi Suzuki

41 Kosuke Matsumura

28 Riku Yamane

24 Tomoki Kondo

40 Jun Amano

23 Ryo Miyaichi

9 Kaina Tanimura

Coach · Steve Corica

Substitutes

7 · Daiya Tono

11 · Jordy Croux

18 · George Onaiwu

43 · Rio Nitta

14 · Kei Chinen

1 · Park Il-Kyu

54 · Shota Fujii

13 · Taisei Inoue

8 · Takuya Kida

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cerezo Osaka

3-4-2-1

23 Kosuke Nakamura

27 Dion Cools

4 Rikito Inoue

15 Javier Hernández

16 Hayato Okuda

10 Shunta Tanaka

36 Jackson Irvine

66 Ayumu Ohata

77 Lucas Fernandes

14 Yumeki Yokoyama

19 Pablo Sabbag

Coach · Pablo Machin

Substitutes

97 · Travis Takahashi

41 · Yota Komi

28 · Kosei Okazawa

8 · Shinji Kagawa

31 · Koto Abe

2 · Takumi Nakamura

7 · Satoki Uejo

17 · Reiya Sakata

45 · Koki Nagasoe

Yokohama F. Marinos

4-2-3-1

21 Hiroki Ilkura

34 Takuto Kimura

17 Jeisson Quiñónes

33 Kosei Suwama

25 Toichi Suzuki

41 Kosuke Matsumura

28 Riku Yamane

24 Tomoki Kondo

40 Jun Amano

23 Ryo Miyaichi

9 Kaina Tanimura

Coach · Steve Corica

Substitutes

7 · Daiya Tono

11 · Jordy Croux

18 · George Onaiwu

43 · Rio Nitta

14 · Kei Chinen

1 · Park Il-Kyu

54 · Shota Fujii

13 · Taisei Inoue

8 · Takuya Kida

Our number · cerezo osaka winPublished 10 Oct 06:01

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Cerezo Osaka a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cerezo osaka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cerezo Osaka win	39%	41%	−1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Yokohama F. Marinos win	36%	33%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	0
Cerezo Osaka or draw	64%	67%	−3
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet	24%	–	–
Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.3 7.5 5.4 2.6 1 7.8 11.3 8.1 3.9 2 5.9 8.5 6.1 3.0 3 3.0 4.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cerezo Osaka down, Yokohama F. Marinos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,654 J1 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cerezo Osaka at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Yokohama F. Marinos away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Cerezo Osaka, 1.45 for Yokohama F. Marinos. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 05:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~YOK 3–1 CER · CER 1–0 YOK · YOK 4–0 CER · CER 2–2 YOK

Form · last six in J1 League

CEREZO OSAKA

WLWDLD1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–6 · 1–1

YOKOHAMA F. MARINOS

WLDWDW1–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	+7	21
2	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	+14	17
4	Machida Zelvia	8	+11	17
5	FC Tokyo	8	+6	17
6	Kashima	9	+3	16
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	8	+4	14
8	Kawasaki Frontale	8	+4	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	8	+1	13
10	Urawa	8	−2	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	8	−5	11
12	Shimizu S-pulse	8	−2	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	0	9
14	Kyoto Sanga	8	−4	8
15	V-varen Nagasaki	8	−5	8
16	Nagoya Grampus	8	−7	6
17	Gamba Osaka	9	−8	6
18	Avispa Fukuoka	8	−3	4
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	−8	4
20	JEF United Chiba	8	−11	4