Cerezo Osaka v Kawasaki Frontale

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cerezo Osaka win at 42%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Cerezo Osaka v Kawasaki Frontale
3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Cerezo Osaka 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
4. 10′We said Cerezo Osaka at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–21–59
5. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Cerezo Osaka 0–1 Kawasaki Frontale
6. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 20% now
7. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Kawasaki Frontale win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Cerezo Osaka win 20%)
8. 11′10′: Pedro Romano on the scoresheet for Kawasaki Frontale, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–21–60
9. 11′We said Cerezo Osaka at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–21–60
10. 12′We said Cerezo Osaka at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–12–81
11. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Cerezo Osaka 0–2 Kawasaki Frontale
12. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 7% now
13. 13′GOAL DISALLOWED · 13' Kawasaki Frontale
14. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 19% now
15. 19′🟥 RED CARD · 19' Cerezo Osaka
16. 20′Cerezo Osaka are down to ten from 19′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 18–22–61
17. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Cerezo Osaka 0–2 Kawasaki Frontale
18. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 6% now
19. 24′GOAL DISALLOWED · 24' Kawasaki Frontale
20. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
21. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 15–22–62
22. 32′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Reon Yamahara · Off: Asahi Sasaki
23. 34′We said Cerezo Osaka at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
24. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Pedro Romano · Kawasaki Frontale
25. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
26. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Cerezo Osaka 1–1 Kawasaki Frontale
27. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 35% now
28. 44′Cerezo Osaka level it on 43′ through Lucas Fernandes. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–35–30
29. 45′SECOND HALF Cerezo Osaka 1–2 Kawasaki Frontale
30. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Reon Yamahara · Kawasaki Frontale
31. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Cerezo Osaka 1–2 Kawasaki Frontale
32. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
33. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yuichi Maruyama · Off: Pedro Romano
34. 48′Kento Tachibanada scores for Kawasaki Frontale on 45′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 11–23–66
35. 48′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 34–37–29
36. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Cerezo Osaka 2–2 Kawasaki Frontale
37. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 34% now
38. 49′48′: Yota Komi on the scoresheet for Cerezo Osaka, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 33–38–29
39. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Kawasaki Frontale win 29%)
40. 51′8 shots for Cerezo Osaka, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 33–39–29
41. 52′HALF-TIME Cerezo Osaka 1–2 Kawasaki Frontale
42. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Jackson Irvine · Cerezo Osaka
43. 57′We said Cerezo Osaka at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 2–2 · 30–43–27
44. 60′We said Cerezo Osaka at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–45–26
45. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Pablo Sabbag · Cerezo Osaka
46. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Cerezo Osaka · On: Solomon Sakuragawa · Off: Pablo Sabbag
47. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
48. 74′We said Cerezo Osaka at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
49. 74′Kawasaki Frontale ahead on 74′ through Yasuto Wakizaka. 2–3. 2–3 · 3–17–80
50. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Cerezo Osaka 2–3 Kawasaki Frontale
51. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 3% now
52. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Kawasaki Frontale win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
53. 76′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 2–16–81
54. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Cerezo Osaka win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
55. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yuto Ozeki · Off: Marcio Augusto da Silva Barbosa
56. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cerezo Osaka · On: Yumeki Yokoyama · Off: Yota Komi
57. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cerezo Osaka · On: Shinji Kagawa · Off: Lucas Fernandes
58. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cerezo Osaka · On: Kosei Okazawa · Off: Jackson Irvine
59. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Yu Kobayashi · Off: Derik Lacerda
60. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kawasaki Frontale · On: So Kawahara · Off: Kento Tachibanada
61. 88′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
62. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Cerezo Osaka 2–4 Kawasaki Frontale
63. 90′Yuto Ozeki scores for Kawasaki Frontale on 89′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
64. 94′7 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–5 · 0–0–100
65. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Cerezo Osaka 2–5 Kawasaki Frontale
66. 96′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+6' Kawasaki Frontale
67. 97′2–4 at the end. Our 42% on Cerezo Osaka misses, and the record keeps it. 2–4 · 0–0–100
68. FTFULL TIME Cerezo Osaka 2–4 Kawasaki Frontale
69. FTCerezo Osaka 2–4 Kawasaki Frontale · Cerezo Osaka win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.