Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba prediction · J1 League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Cerezo OsakaDrawJEF United Chiba

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 06:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cerezo Osaka 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cerezo Osaka are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cerezo Osaka 54%, draw 23%, JEF United Chiba 23%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Cerezo Osaka v JEF United ChibaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cerezo Osaka win54%

Draw23%

JEF United Chiba win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueYanmar Hanasaka Stadium

Line-ups

Cerezo Osaka

3-4-2-1

JEF United Chiba

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cerezo Osaka

JEF United Chiba

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13
20	JEF United Chiba	11	−12	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cerezo Osaka

3-4-2-1

23 Kosuke Nakamura

27 Dion-Johan Cools

97 T. Takahashi

4 R. Inoue

2 T. Nakamura

10 S. Tanaka

36 J. Irvine

66 A. Ohata

77 Lucas Fernandes

41 Y. Komi

19 P. Sabbag

Coach · Pablo Machín

Substitutes

7 · S. Uejo

8 · S. Kagawa

31 · K. Abe

15 · Javi Hernández

28 · K. Okazawa

16 · H. Okuda

17 · R. Sakata

9 · S. Sakuragawa

14 · Y. Yokoyama

JEF United Chiba

4-4-2

19 J. Suarez

15 T. Mae

24 K. Toriumi

2 B. Nduka

67 M. Hidaka

8 T. Tsukui

6 Dudu

41 T. Yasui

37 M. Himeno

9 H. Goya

99 Erison

Coach · Y. Kobayashi

Substitutes

7 · K. Tanaka

29 · K. Yamura

4 · T. Taguchi

23 · R. Suzuki

13 · D. Suzuki

18 · N. Sugiyama

45 · Leonardo Rocha

25 · Matheus Índio

28 · T. Kawano

Our number · cerezo osaka winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market55%

Us54%

~~Market~~55%

We make Cerezo Osaka a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba~~1.83 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 6~~13 v 20

~~The market · Cerezo Osaka win~~55% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cerezo Osaka win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cerezo Osaka win	54%	55%	−1
Draw	23%	24%	−1
JEF United Chiba win	23%	21%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	34%	0
Cerezo Osaka or draw	77%	79%	−2
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet	34%	–	–
JEF United Chiba clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.7 5.8 3.3 1 9.7 10.9 5.8 2.2 2 9.0 9.7 5.3 3 5.5 5.9 3.2 4 2.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cerezo Osaka down, JEF United Chiba across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 J1 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022.

Home and away form

Cerezo Osaka at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). JEF United Chiba away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Cerezo Osaka, 1.09 for JEF United Chiba. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 6 Sept

CEREZO OSAKA

DLDDLD0–0 · 1–6 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 1–1

JEF UNITED CHIBA

WDLDDL2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Machida Zelvia	12	+20	27
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	+19	26
3	Kashiwa Reysol	12	+6	25
4	FC Tokyo	11	+13	24
5	Vissel Kobe	12	+7	23
6	Kashima	12	+4	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	+6	19
8	Urawa	11	−3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	+4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	−1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	12	−10	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	−4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	−7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	−3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	−7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	−8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	11	−4	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	−12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	−8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	11	−12	6