Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka prediction · J1 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30

Avispa Fukuoka 1–2 Gamba Osaka AVISPA FUKUOKA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Avispa Fukuoka win~~36%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.616

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.640

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Avispa Fukuoka win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Avispa Fukuoka 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
1′KICK-OFF Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Yuma Tsujioka · Avispa Fukuoka
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Avispa Fukuoka win 33%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Kokoro Maeda · Avispa Fukuoka
45′HALF-TIME Avispa Fukuoka 0–0 Gamba Osaka
46′SECOND HALF Avispa Fukuoka 0–0 Gamba Osaka
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Masato Yuzawa · Avispa Fukuoka
50′We said Avispa Fukuoka at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–21–72
50′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 7–21–72
50′Gamba Osaka ahead on 50′ through Welton. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–72
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 Gamba Osaka
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Avispa Fukuoka win: 36% at kick-off, 7% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Gamba Osaka win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 44%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Avispa Fukuoka win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
60′We said Avispa Fukuoka at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Yu Hashimoto · Off: Masato Yuzawa
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Shohei Takemoto · Off: Yuji Kitajima
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Gamba Osaka · On: Issam Jebali · Off: Yusei Toshida
75′Yu Hashimoto scores for Avispa Fukuoka on 75′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 15–70–15
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Avispa Fukuoka 1–1 Gamba Osaka · Yu Hashimoto
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Avispa Fukuoka win: 36% at kick-off, 15% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Gamba Osaka win 85%)
76′We said Avispa Fukuoka at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–71–14
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Werik Popo · Off: Masato Shigemi
78′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–12–87
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Avispa Fukuoka 1–2 Gamba Osaka
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Avispa Fukuoka win: 36% at kick-off, 1% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Gamba Osaka win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 73%)
79′77′: Takashi Usami on the scoresheet for Gamba Osaka, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Gamba Osaka · On: Takeru Kishimoto · Off: Welton
80′Avispa Fukuoka level it on 80′ through Yuma Tsujioka. 2–2. 2–2 · 11–78–11
80′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 11–78–11
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Avispa Fukuoka 2–2 Gamba Osaka · Yuma Tsujioka
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Avispa Fukuoka win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Gamba Osaka win 89%)
81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' Avispa Fukuoka
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Avispa Fukuoka win: 36% at kick-off, 1% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Gamba Osaka win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 78%)
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gamba Osaka · On: Shogo Sasaki · Off: Takashi Usami
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gamba Osaka · On: Ryotaro Meshino · Off: Soya Fujiwara
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Rin Mito · Gamba Osaka
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Daiki Miya · Off: Yuma Tsujioka
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Shintaro Nago · Off: Yota Maejima
FTFULL TIME Avispa Fukuoka 1–2 Gamba Osaka
FTAvispa Fukuoka 1–2 Gamba Osaka · Avispa Fukuoka win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Avispa Fukuoka just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Avispa Fukuoka 36%, draw 28%, Gamba Osaka 36%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba OsakaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Avispa Fukuoka win36%

Draw28%

Gamba Osaka win36%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBest Denki Stadium

RefereeMasuya Ueda

Line-ups

Avispa Fukuoka

3-4-2-1

Gamba Osaka

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Avispa Fukuoka

Gamba Osaka

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 17 Oct · J1 League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Avispa Fukuoka	10	−5	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Avispa Fukuoka

3-4-2-1

24 Y. Obata

16 T. Oka

5 T. Kamijima

15 Y. Tsujioka

2 M. Yuzawa

55 K. Maeda

11 T. Miki

29 Y. Maejima

6 M. Shigemi

25 Y. Kitajima

13 S. Morooka

Coach · S. Tsukahara

Substitutes

47 · Y. Hashimoto

38 · D. Miya

1 · T. Nagaishi

14 · S. Nago

34 · K. Shiihashi

52 · Shohei Takemoto

37 · M. Tashiro

9 · Werik Popó

33 · K. Yamawaki

Gamba Osaka

4-2-3-1

22 J. Ichimori

28 S. Fujiwara

4 S. Nakatani

2 S. Fukuoka

21 R. Hatsuse

27 R. Mito

13 S. Abe

17 R. Yamashita

7 T. Usami

97 Welton Felipe

41 Y. Toshida

Coach · Tomokazu Myojin

Substitutes

16 · T. Suzuki

67 · S. Sasaki

24 · T. Ogashiwa

47 · S. Nakano

8 · R. Meshino

15 · T. Kishimoto

11 · I. Jebali

1 · M. Higashiguchi

20 · E. Adams

Our number · avispa fukuoka winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

36% The market37%

Us36%

~~Market~~37%

We make Avispa Fukuoka a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka~~1.21 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~17 v 18

~~The market · Avispa Fukuoka win~~37% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Avispa Fukuoka win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avispa Fukuoka win	36%	37%	−1
Draw	28%	28%	0
Gamba Osaka win	36%	35%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
Avispa Fukuoka or draw	64%	65%	−1
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet	30%	–	–
Gamba Osaka clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.2 10.7 6.5 2.6 1 10.7 13.0 7.8 3.2 2 6.5 7.8 4.7 3 2.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avispa Fukuoka down, Gamba Osaka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,672 J1 League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Avispa Fukuoka at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gamba Osaka away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Avispa Fukuoka, 1.21 for Gamba Osaka. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GAM 1–2 AVI · AVI 2–2 GAM · AVI 1–0 GAM · GAM 2–1 AVI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in J1 League this season · since 2 Sept

AVISPA FUKUOKA

LDLLWL2–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

GAMBA OSAKA

DLLLLD2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	+19	23
2	Machida Zelvia	10	+15	23
3	FC Tokyo	10	+13	23
4	Vissel Kobe	10	+8	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	10	+5	21
6	Kashima	10	+5	19
7	Kawasaki Frontale	10	+5	16
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	+4	16
9	Urawa	10	−4	15
10	Shimizu S-pulse	10	−1	14
11	Fagiano Okayama	10	−3	13
12	Nagoya Grampus	10	−4	12
13	Cerezo Osaka	10	−7	12
14	Mito Hollyhock	10	−2	9
15	V-varen Nagasaki	10	−7	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	10	−8	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	10	−5	7
18	Gamba Osaka	10	−8	7
19	JEF United Chiba	10	−11	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	10	−14	4