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Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama

Avispa Fukuoka

2–1Full time

Fagiano Okayama

J1 League · SAT 10 OCT · Best Denki Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 09:34

Avispa Fukuoka 2–1 Fagiano Okayama AVISPA FUKUOKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Avispa Fukuoka win~~37%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.588

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.707

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Avispa Fukuoka win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Avispa Fukuoka 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
1′KICK-OFF Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Fagiano Okayama
7′⚽ GOAL · 8' Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Fagiano Okayama
9′Yota Maejima scores for Avispa Fukuoka on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–21–12
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Avispa Fukuoka win: 37% at kick-off, 68% now
12′We said Avispa Fukuoka at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–21–11
25′We said Avispa Fukuoka at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 71–21–8
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Kamiya Yuta · Fagiano Okayama
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fagiano Okayama · On: Ataru Esaka · Off: Kota Kawano
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fagiano Okayama · On: Eiji Miyamoto · Off: Kamiya Yuta
45′SECOND HALF Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Fagiano Okayama
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Masato Shigemi · Avispa Fukuoka
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Fagiano Okayama · On: Noah Kenshin Browne · Off: Towa Yamane
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Avispa Fukuoka 1–1 Fagiano Okayama · Yota Maejima
60′⚽ GOAL · 61' Avispa Fukuoka 1–1 Fagiano Okayama · Kosuke Shirai
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Kaoru Yamawaki · Off: Masato Yuzawa
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Yu Hashimoto · Off: Teppei Oka
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Yuji Kitajima · Off: Masato Shigemi
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Yuma Tsujioka · Avispa Fukuoka
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Avispa Fukuoka 2–1 Fagiano Okayama · Kosuke Shirai
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Avispa Fukuoka 2–1 Fagiano Okayama · Yu Hashimoto
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fagiano Okayama · On: Masaya Matsumoto · Off: Kosuke Shirai
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Fagiano Okayama · On: Ryoga Sato · Off: Na Sang-Ho
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Yuji Kitajima · Avispa Fukuoka
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Abdul Hanan Sani Brown · Off: Werik Popo
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Avispa Fukuoka 2–2 Fagiano Okayama · Yu Hashimoto
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Daiki Miya · Off: Yota Maejima
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Noah Kenshin Browne · Fagiano Okayama
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Abdul Hanan Sani Brown · Avispa Fukuoka
FTFULL TIME Avispa Fukuoka 2–1 Fagiano Okayama
FTAvispa Fukuoka 2–1 Fagiano Okayama · Avispa Fukuoka win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Avispa Fukuoka win37%

Draw29%

Fagiano Okayama win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 07:00

Venue · Best Denki Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Avispa Fukuoka

3-4-2-1

24 Yuma Obata

16 Teppei Oka

37 Tashiro Masaya

15 Yuma Tsujioka

2 Yuzawa Masato

34 Keiya Shiihashi

55 Kokoro Maeda

29 Maejima Yota

6 Masato Shigemi

13 Shu Morooka

9 Werik Popó

Coach · Shinya Tsukahara

Substitutes

33 · Kaoru Yamawaki

47 · Yu Hashimoto

25 · Yuji Kitajima

32 · Abdel Hanan Sani Brown

38 · Daiki Miya

1 · Takumi Nagaishi

17 · Hiroki Akino

52 · Shohei Takemoto

14 · Shintaro Nago

Fagiano Okayama

3-4-2-1

1 Lennart Moser

44 Soichiro Mori

48 Yugo Tatsuta

6 Hiroshi Omori

51 Kosuke Shirai

80 Oberdan Alionço

33 Yuta Kamiya

88 Towa Yamane

20 Kota Kawano

10 Sang-Ho Na

9 Léo Gaúcho

Coach · Takashi Kiyama

Substitutes

41 · Eiji Miyamoto

8 · Ataru Esaka

79 · Noah Kenshin Browne

28 · Masaya Matsumoto

19 · Ryoga Sato

52 · Taro Hamada

43 · Yoshitake Suzuki

55 · Yota Fujii

7 · Ryo Takeuchi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Avispa Fukuoka

3-4-2-1

24 Yuma Obata

16 Teppei Oka

37 Tashiro Masaya

15 Yuma Tsujioka

2 Yuzawa Masato

34 Keiya Shiihashi

55 Kokoro Maeda

29 Maejima Yota

6 Masato Shigemi

13 Shu Morooka

9 Werik Popó

Coach · Shinya Tsukahara

Substitutes

33 · Kaoru Yamawaki

47 · Yu Hashimoto

25 · Yuji Kitajima

32 · Abdel Hanan Sani Brown

38 · Daiki Miya

1 · Takumi Nagaishi

17 · Hiroki Akino

52 · Shohei Takemoto

14 · Shintaro Nago

Fagiano Okayama

3-4-2-1

1 Lennart Moser

44 Soichiro Mori

48 Yugo Tatsuta

6 Hiroshi Omori

51 Kosuke Shirai

80 Oberdan Alionço

33 Yuta Kamiya

88 Towa Yamane

20 Kota Kawano

10 Sang-Ho Na

9 Léo Gaúcho

Coach · Takashi Kiyama

Substitutes

41 · Eiji Miyamoto

8 · Ataru Esaka

79 · Noah Kenshin Browne

28 · Masaya Matsumoto

19 · Ryoga Sato

52 · Taro Hamada

43 · Yoshitake Suzuki

55 · Yota Fujii

7 · Ryo Takeuchi

Our number · avispa fukuoka winPublished 10 Oct 07:02

37% The market31%

Us37%

~~Market~~31%

We make Avispa Fukuoka a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · avispa fukuoka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 31% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avispa Fukuoka win	37%	31%	+6
Draw	29%	31%	−1
Fagiano Okayama win	33%	38%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	37%	41%	−4
Both teams to score	43%	48%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	64%	66%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	18%	22%	−4
Avispa Fukuoka or draw	67%	62%	+5
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet	36%	–	–
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.6 11.9 6.2 2.2 1 12.9 13.3 6.9 2.4 2 7.3 7.5 3.9 3 2.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avispa Fukuoka down, Fagiano Okayama across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,654 J1 League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Avispa Fukuoka at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Fagiano Okayama away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Avispa Fukuoka, 1.04 for Fagiano Okayama. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 06:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FAG 2–0 AVI · AVI 1–1 FAG · FAG 0–1 AVI · AVI 1–1 FAG

Form · last six in J1 League

AVISPA FUKUOKA

LLLDLL2–3 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

FAGIANO OKAYAMA

DLWWWL0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	+7	21
2	Vissel Kobe	9	+5	19
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	+14	17
4	Machida Zelvia	8	+11	17
5	FC Tokyo	8	+6	17
6	Kashima	9	+3	16
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	8	+4	14
8	Kawasaki Frontale	8	+4	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	8	+1	13
10	Urawa	8	−2	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	8	−5	11
12	Shimizu S-pulse	8	−2	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	0	9
14	Kyoto Sanga	8	−4	8
15	V-varen Nagasaki	8	−5	8
16	Nagoya Grampus	8	−7	6
17	Gamba Osaka	9	−8	6
18	Avispa Fukuoka	8	−3	4
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	−8	4
20	JEF United Chiba	8	−11	4