Yokohama FC v Urawa prediction · J-League Cup

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 13:01

Yokohama FC 0–4 Urawa URAWA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Urawa win~~39%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.568

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.392

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Urawa win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Urawa was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Yokohama FC v Urawa
3′Urawa find the net on 7′. 0–0. 0–0 · 35–26–39
15′S. Sasa scores for Urawa on 14′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–86
15′⚽ GOAL · 7' Yokohama FC 0–2 Urawa · R. Hidano (assist S. Sasa)
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Yokohama FC 0–2 Urawa · S. Sasa
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Urawa win: 39% at kick-off, 86% now
17′We published Urawa at 39%. Our model now makes it 87%. 0–2 · 4–9–87
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Urawa
29′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Y. Naganuma · Urawa
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Urawa win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
35′We published Urawa at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Yokohama FC 0–3 Urawa
38′36′ and it is 0–3: Urawa have scored. 0–3 · 0–2–98
41′We published Urawa at 39%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–3 · 0–2–98
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Yokohama FC
43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Adailton · Yokohama FC
45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–98
45′HALF-TIME Yokohama FC 0–3 Urawa
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yokohama FC · On: J. Hata · Off: H. Sugita
46′SECOND HALF Yokohama FC 0–3 Urawa
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yokohama FC · On: R. Iwasaki · Off: Adailton
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Urawa win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Yokohama FC
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' K. Chiba · Yokohama FC
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Urawa · On: T. Seko · Off: R. Watanabe
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Urawa · On: A. Onaiwu · Off: H. Komori
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Yokohama FC
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' H. Ogura · Yokohama FC
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Yokohama FC · On: Lukian · Off: K. Chiba
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Yokohama FC · On: R. Watanabe · Off: N. Komazawa
69′We published Urawa at 39%. Our model now makes it 100%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Urawa · On: Matheus Savio · Off: R. Hidano
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Yokohama FC · On: T. Sota · Off: K. Kumakura
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Urawa · On: T. Wada · Off: S. Gustafson
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Urawa · On: K. Hayashi · Off: Y. Miyamoto
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Yokohama FC
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' R. Watanabe · Yokohama FC
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Yokohama FC 0–4 Urawa
FTFULL TIME Yokohama FC 0–4 Urawa
FTYokohama FC 0–4 Urawa · Urawa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Yokohama FC v UrawaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 09:49 · locked at kick-off

Yokohama FC win35%

Draw26%

Urawa win39%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 10:30

VenueMNHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Line-ups

Yokohama FC

Urawa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Yokohama FC

Urawa

15Days since last match15

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Yokohama FC	2	+2	6
14	Urawa	1	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Yokohama FC

Formation not confirmed

21 A. Ichikawa

15 K. Hayashi

19 H. Sugita

28 K. Kumakura

13 R. Kubota

35 K. Uda

4 H. Ogura

29 R. Nakamura

30 K. Chiba

90 Adailton

49 N. Komazawa

Coach · Daisuke Sudo

Substitutes

5 · K. Hosoi

9 · Lukian

10 · Joao Paulo

24 · J. Hata

31 · M. Harada

48 · K. Shimbo

63 · T. Sota

70 · R. Watanabe

78 · R. Iwasaki

Urawa

Formation not confirmed

23 K. Fukui

3 Danilo Boza

2 Y. Miyamoto

15 K. Kudo

88 Y. Naganuma

33 S. Sasa

11 S. Gustafson

13 R. Watanabe

36 R. Hidano

17 H. Komori

39 J. Hayakawa

Coach · Kwi-jae Cho

Substitutes

5 · K. Nemoto

6 · M. Yamane

7 · T. Kaneko

10 · Matheus Savio

12 · T. Seko

18 · K. Hayashi

43 · T. Wada

44 · Y. Arai

45 · A. Onaiwu

Our number · urawa winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 09:49 · locked at kick-off

39% The market49%

Us39%

~~Market~~49%

We make Urawa a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yokohama FC v Urawa~~1.32 – 1.40

~~Last six in J-League Cup~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~3 v 14

~~The market · Urawa win~~49% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · urawa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yokohama FC win	35%	26%	+9
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Urawa win	39%	49%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	56%	60%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Yokohama FC or draw	61%	51%	+10
Yokohama FC clean sheet	25%	–	–
Urawa clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.0 8.8 6.5 3.0 1 8.3 12.6 8.5 4.0 2 5.7 8.0 5.6 2.6 3 2.5 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yokohama FC down, Urawa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Yokohama FC play in the J2/J3 League, Urawa in the J1 League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Yokohama FC are at home.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Yokohama FC, 1.40 for Urawa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~URA 2–0 YOK · YOK 1–2 URA

Form · last six in J-League Cup

YOKOHAMA FC

WLLLWW2–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–1

URAWA

LWLDDW1–2 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jubilo Iwata	2	+5	6
2	Gainare Tottori	2	+4	6
3	Yokohama FC	2	+2	6
4	Mito Hollyhock	2	+7	4
5	Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Matsumoto Yamaga	2	+1	4
7	Sagan Tosu	2	+1	4
8	Tokyo Verdy	2	+1	4
9	Nagoya Grampus	1	+2	3
10	FC Tokyo	1	+2	3
11	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1	+2	3
12	Shimizu S-pulse	1	+2	3
13	Fujieda MYFC	2	+1	3
14	Urawa	1	+1	3
15	Cerezo Osaka	1	+1	3
16	Fagiano Okayama	1	+1	3
17	Roasso Kumamoto	2	+1	3
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	1	+1	3
19	Kawasaki Frontale	1	+1	3
20	JEF United Chiba	2	0	3
21	Kataller Toyama	2	0	3
22	Albirex Niigata	2	0	3
23	Consadole Sapporo	2	0	3
24	Montedio Yamagata	2	0	3
25	Tochigi City	2	0	3
26	Kanazawa	2	−1	3
27	Kitakyushu	2	−1	3
28	Ehime FC	2	−1	3
29	V-varen Nagasaki	2	−1	3
30	Fukushima United	2	−6	3
31	Gamba Osaka	1	0	1
32	Kashiwa Reysol	1	0	1
33	Shonan Bellmare	1	0	1
34	Avispa Fukuoka	1	0	1
35	Kyoto Sanga	1	0	1
36	Machida Zelvia	1	0	1
37	Parceiro Nagano	1	0	1
38	Tokushima Vortis	1	0	1
39	FC Gifu	2	−1	1
40	Vegalta Sendai	1	−1	0
41	FC Ryukyu	1	−1	0
42	Imabari	1	−1	0
43	Nara Club	1	−1	0
44	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1	−1	0
45	Thespakusatsu Gunma	1	−1	0
46	Biwako Shiga	1	−1	0
47	Blaublitz Akita	1	−1	0
48	Iwaki	1	−1	0
49	Kagoshima United	1	−1	0
50	Kochi United	1	−1	0
51	Tochigi SC	1	−1	0
52	Omiya Ardija	1	−2	0
53	Kamatamare Sanuki	1	−2	0
54	Oita Trinita	1	−2	0
55	Renofa Yamaguchi	1	−2	0
56	Vanraure Hachinohe	1	−2	0
57	Sagamihara	1	−3	0
58	Ventforet Kofu	1	−3	0