Yokohama F. Marinos v Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction · J-League Cup

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Yokohama F. MarinosDrawSanfrecce Hiroshima

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yokohama F. Marinos 32%, draw 26%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 43%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Yokohama F. Marinos v Sanfrecce HiroshimaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Yokohama F. Marinos win32%

Draw26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win43%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 10:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueNissan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yokohama F. Marinos

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

7Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

Last match: 24 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sanfrecce hiroshima winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:29 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yokohama F. Marinos v Sanfrecce Hiroshima~~1.27 – 1.51

~~Form · J-League Cup this season · since 29 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sanfrecce Hiroshima win

Published at 42%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yokohama F. Marinos win	32%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Yokohama F. Marinos or draw	57%	–	–
Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet	22%	–	–
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.6 9.3 7.1 3.6 1 7.7 12.0 8.9 4.5 2 5.0 7.5 5.6 2.8 3 2.1 3.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yokohama F. Marinos down, Sanfrecce Hiroshima across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 J1 League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yokohama F. Marinos at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sanfrecce Hiroshima away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Yokohama F. Marinos, 1.51 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~YOK 3–0 SAN · SAN 1–0 YOK · SAN 6–2 YOK · YOK 3–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · J-League Cup this season · since 29 Sept

YOKOHAMA F. MARINOS

WW2–1 · 2–1

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA

WW2–0 · 1–0

Yokohama F. Marinos v Sanfrecce Hiroshima

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

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Rest & schedule

Yokohama F. Marinos

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · J-League Cup this season · since 29 Sept