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Model 1.2

Home › Football › J-League Cup › Sagan Tosu v Kawasaki Frontale

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Sagan Tosu v Kawasaki Frontale

Sagan Tosu
10:00Upcoming
Kawasaki Frontale

J-League Cup · WED 28 OCT · Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sagan TosuDrawKawasaki Frontale
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Kawasaki Frontale 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kawasaki Frontale are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sagan Tosu 26%, draw 24%, Kawasaki Frontale 50%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Sagan Tosu v Kawasaki FrontaleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sagan Tosu win26%
Draw24%
Kawasaki Frontale win50%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 10:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueEkimae Real Estate Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sagan Tosu

Kawasaki Frontale

7Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · J2 League

Last match: 21 Oct · J1 League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kawasaki frontale winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
50% The market–
Us50%

We make Kawasaki Frontale a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sagan Tosu v Kawasaki Frontale1.18 – 1.73
Form · J-League Cup this season · since 2 SeptW2 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sagan Tosu win26%––
Draw24%––
Kawasaki Frontale win50%––
Over 2.5 goals56%––
Both teams to score57%––
Over 1.5 goals79%––
Over 3.5 goals33%––
Sagan Tosu or draw50%––
Sagan Tosu clean sheet18%––
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 5.8 9.1 8.1 4.7 2.0 1 6.1 11.5 9.6 5.5 2.4 2 3.8 6.6 5.7 3.3 3 2.6 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sagan Tosu down, Kawasaki Frontale across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsKAW 3–2 SAG · SAG 5–2 KAW · SAG 0–1 KAW · KAW 1–0 SAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · J-League Cup this season · since 2 Sept

SAGAN TOSU

WDW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

KAWASAKI FRONTALE

WW1–0 · 4–0