Sagan Tosu v Avispa Fukuoka prediction · J-League Cup

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 13:53

Sagan Tosu 2–1 Avispa Fukuoka AVISPA FUKUOKA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Avispa Fukuoka win~~35%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.681

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Avispa Fukuoka win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Avispa Fukuoka was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 33–32–36
1′KICK-OFF Sagan Tosu v Avispa Fukuoka
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Sagan Tosu
8′🟨 YELLOW · 4' H. Goto · Sagan Tosu
8′🟨 YELLOW · 5' S. Nagasawa · Sagan Tosu
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Sagan Tosu 0–1 Avispa Fukuoka
17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' Avispa Fukuoka
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Avispa Fukuoka win 32%)
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Sagan Tosu 1–0 Avispa Fukuoka
33′A goal for Sagan Tosu on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–8
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Avispa Fukuoka win: 35% at kick-off, 8% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Sagan Tosu win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 22%)
37′We said Avispa Fukuoka at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 71–22–7
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Sagan Tosu 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka
41′38′ and it is 1–1: Y. Hashimoto on the scoresheet for Avispa Fukuoka. 1–1 · 27–45–28
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Avispa Fukuoka win: 35% at kick-off, 28% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Sagan Tosu win 27%)
45′HALF-TIME Sagan Tosu 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka
46′SECOND HALF Sagan Tosu 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka
58′We said Avispa Fukuoka at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 21–56–23
58′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Avispa Fukuoka · On: K. Maeda · Off: T. Miki
58′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Y. Tsujioka · Off: S. Takemoto
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Avispa Fukuoka win: 35% at kick-off, 23% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Avispa Fukuoka · On: Y. Kitajima · Off: I. Maeda
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sagan Tosu · On: T. Takahashi · Off: H. Goto
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sagan Tosu · On: K. Sakamoto · Off: H. Nakahara Corrected
67′We said Avispa Fukuoka at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 17–65–18
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Sagan Tosu 2–1 Avispa Fukuoka
73′Sagan Tosu find the net on 71′. 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–1
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Avispa Fukuoka win: 35% at kick-off, 1% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Sagan Tosu win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
75′Sagan Tosu ahead on 70′ through K. Yamauchi. 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
77′We said Avispa Fukuoka at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sagan Tosu · On: K. Nishizawa · Off: K. Jojo
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sagan Tosu · On: K. Nishizawa · Off: K. Jojo
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sagan Tosu · On: M. Yoshida · Off: K. Yoshino
79′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 90–10–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Avispa Fukuoka · On: K. Yamawaki · Off: D. Miya
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Avispa Fukuoka · On: A. Brown · Off: S. Sato
90′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sagan Tosu · On: K. Sakamoto · Off: Y. Narahara
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sagan Tosu · On: R. Hyon · Off: H. Nakahara
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Avispa Fukuoka · On: M. Tashiro · Off: Y. Kitajima
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Sagan Tosu · On: T. Sakurai · Off: K. Yamauchi
FTFULL TIME Sagan Tosu 2–1 Avispa Fukuoka
FTSagan Tosu 2–1 Avispa Fukuoka · Avispa Fukuoka win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Sagan Tosu v Avispa FukuokaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

Sagan Tosu win33%

Draw32%

Avispa Fukuoka win35%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 11:00

VenueEkimae Real Estate Stadium

Line-ups

Sagan Tosu

Avispa Fukuoka

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sagan Tosu

Avispa Fukuoka

15Days since last match15

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sagan Tosu	2	+1	4
34	Avispa Fukuoka	1	0	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sagan Tosu

Formation not confirmed

12 S. Matsubara

5 S. Nagasawa

4 Y. Imazu

33 S. Ogawa

43 K. Yoshino

41 H. Matsuoka

24 K. Yamauchi

8 Y. Narahara

20 H. Nakahara

13 K. Jojo

42 H. Goto

Coach · Akio Kogiku

Substitutes

3 · K. Kamiyama

6 · T. Sakurai

7 · K. Sakamoto

9 · T. Takahashi

16 · K. Nishizawa

18 · R. Hyon

19 · Park Ho-Min

28 · M. Yoshida

1 · R. Izumori

Avispa Fukuoka

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Nagaishi

5 T. Kamijima

38 D. Miya

56 Y. Sakai

47 Y. Hashimoto

17 H. Akino

11 T. Miki

52 S. Takemoto

14 S. Nago

18 S. Sato

49 I. Maeda

Coach · Shinya Tsukahara

Substitutes

8 · K. Okuno

15 · Y. Tsujioka

24 · Y. Obata

25 · Y. Kitajima

32 · A. Brown

33 · K. Yamawaki

37 · M. Tashiro

53 · H. Maeda

55 · K. Maeda

Our number · avispa fukuoka winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

35% The market42%

Us35%

~~Market~~42%

We make Avispa Fukuoka a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sagan Tosu v Avispa Fukuoka~~0.95 – 1.00

~~Last six in J-League Cup~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 1~~7 v 34

~~The market · Avispa Fukuoka win~~42% · ours 35%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · avispa fukuoka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sagan Tosu win	33%	29%	+4
Draw	32%	28%	+4
Avispa Fukuoka win	35%	42%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	31%	46%	−15
Both teams to score	39%	52%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	59%	71%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	13%	26%	−13
Sagan Tosu or draw	65%	58%	+7
Sagan Tosu clean sheet	37%	–	–
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.6%

0123450 14.6 13.8 7.1 2.4 1 13.1 14.0 6.8 2.3 2 6.4 6.4 3.2 3 2.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sagan Tosu down, Avispa Fukuoka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Sagan Tosu play in the J2/J3 League, Avispa Fukuoka in the J1 League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Sagan Tosu are at home.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Sagan Tosu, 1.00 for Avispa Fukuoka. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AVI 4–1 SAG · SAG 0–1 AVI

Form · last six in J-League Cup

SAGAN TOSU

LWDDWD1–6 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

AVISPA FUKUOKA

WWWWLD2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jubilo Iwata	2	+5	6
2	Gainare Tottori	2	+4	6
3	Yokohama FC	2	+2	6
4	Mito Hollyhock	2	+7	4
5	Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Matsumoto Yamaga	2	+1	4
7	Sagan Tosu	2	+1	4
8	Tokyo Verdy	2	+1	4
9	Nagoya Grampus	1	+2	3
10	FC Tokyo	1	+2	3
11	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1	+2	3
12	Shimizu S-pulse	1	+2	3
13	Fujieda MYFC	2	+1	3
14	Urawa	1	+1	3
15	Cerezo Osaka	1	+1	3
16	Fagiano Okayama	1	+1	3
17	Roasso Kumamoto	2	+1	3
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	1	+1	3
19	Kawasaki Frontale	1	+1	3
20	JEF United Chiba	2	0	3
21	Kataller Toyama	2	0	3
22	Albirex Niigata	2	0	3
23	Consadole Sapporo	2	0	3
24	Montedio Yamagata	2	0	3
25	Tochigi City	2	0	3
26	Kanazawa	2	−1	3
27	Kitakyushu	2	−1	3
28	Ehime FC	2	−1	3
29	V-varen Nagasaki	2	−1	3
30	Fukushima United	2	−6	3
31	Gamba Osaka	1	0	1
32	Kashiwa Reysol	1	0	1
33	Shonan Bellmare	1	0	1
34	Avispa Fukuoka	1	0	1
35	Kyoto Sanga	1	0	1
36	Machida Zelvia	1	0	1
37	Parceiro Nagano	1	0	1
38	Tokushima Vortis	1	0	1
39	FC Gifu	2	−1	1
40	Vegalta Sendai	1	−1	0
41	FC Ryukyu	1	−1	0
42	Imabari	1	−1	0
43	Nara Club	1	−1	0
44	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1	−1	0
45	Thespakusatsu Gunma	1	−1	0
46	Biwako Shiga	1	−1	0
47	Blaublitz Akita	1	−1	0
48	Iwaki	1	−1	0
49	Kagoshima United	1	−1	0
50	Kochi United	1	−1	0
51	Tochigi SC	1	−1	0
52	Omiya Ardija	1	−2	0
53	Kamatamare Sanuki	1	−2	0
54	Oita Trinita	1	−2	0
55	Renofa Yamaguchi	1	−2	0
56	Vanraure Hachinohe	1	−2	0
57	Sagamihara	1	−3	0
58	Ventforet Kofu	1	−3	0