Mito Hollyhock v FC Tokyo prediction · J-League Cup

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 13:53

Mito Hollyhock 1–0 FC Tokyo FC TOKYO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Tokyo win~~45%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.778

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.097

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Tokyo win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Tokyo was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
1′KICK-OFF Mito Hollyhock v FC Tokyo
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' FC Tokyo
39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' T. Ko · FC Tokyo
45′HALF-TIME Mito Hollyhock 0–0 FC Tokyo
46′SECOND HALF Mito Hollyhock 0–0 FC Tokyo
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mito Hollyhock · On: R. Ieizumi · Off: Y. Kimoto
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' FC Tokyo
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' FC Tokyo win: 45% at kick-off, 34% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was FC Tokyo win 34%)
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Mito Hollyhock 1–0 FC Tokyo
54′🟨 YELLOW · 49' K. Tokiwa · FC Tokyo
58′51′ and it is 1–0: Y. Yamashita on the scoresheet for Mito Hollyhock. 1–0 · 69–23–7
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' FC Tokyo win: 45% at kick-off, 7% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Mito Hollyhock win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 23%)
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Tokyo · On: S. Anzai · Off: F. Yamada
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Tokyo · On: M. Nagakura · Off: D. Gomez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Mito Hollyhock · On: K. Gokita · Off: Patryck
68′We said FC Tokyo at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' FC Tokyo win: 45% at kick-off, 4% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Tokyo · On: Marcelo Ryan · Off: T. Nakagawa
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Tokyo · On: K. Bangnagande · Off: K. Suzuki
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Mito Hollyhock · On: M. Nishihara · Off: M. Arai
78′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Tokyo · On: Marcelo Ryan · Off: T. Nakagawa
78′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Tokyo · On: K. Bangnagande · Off: K. Suzuki
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Mito Hollyhock · On: Y. Funabashi · Off: K. Yamazaki
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Mito Hollyhock · On: K. Itakura · Off: K. Tada
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Tokyo · On: K. Tawaratsumida · Off: K. Sato
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Mito Hollyhock
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' K. Gokita · Mito Hollyhock
FTFULL TIME Mito Hollyhock 1–0 FC Tokyo
FTMito Hollyhock 1–0 FC Tokyo · FC Tokyo win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Mito Hollyhock v FC TokyoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

Mito Hollyhock win29%

Draw26%

FC Tokyo win45%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 11:00

VenueBest Denki Stadium

Line-ups

Mito Hollyhock

FC Tokyo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mito Hollyhock

FC Tokyo

15Days since last match15

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Mito Hollyhock	2	+7	4
10	FC Tokyo	1	+2	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mito Hollyhock

Formation not confirmed

27 J. Slowik

16 Y. Tamura

2 M. Fofana

15 Y. Kimoto

3 K. Osaki

39 H. Yamamoto

24 K. Yamazaki

48 Y. Yamashita

14 M. Arai

29 K. Tada

33 Patryck

Coach · Daisuke Kimori

Substitutes

21 · S. Matsubara

17 · K. Itakura

50 · R. Ieizumi

20 · Y. Funabashi

30 · J. Okumura

44 · M. Nishihara

53 · S. Yamashita

9 · R. Nemoto

87 · K. Gokita

FC Tokyo

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Tanaka

15 R. Omori

24 A. Scholz

3 M. Morishige

44 K. Suzuki

71 F. Yamada

8 T. Ko

27 K. Tokiwa

10 K. Sato

99 D. Gomez

39 T. Nakagawa

Coach · Rikizo Matsuhashi

Substitutes

58 · W. Goto

4 · H. Inamura

6 · K. Bangnagande

20 · S. Nagano

22 · H. Ishihara

7 · S. Anzai

33 · K. Tawaratsumida

9 · Marcelo Ryan

26 · M. Nagakura

Our number · fc tokyo winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

45% The market60%

Us45%

~~Market~~60%

We make FC Tokyo a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mito Hollyhock v FC Tokyo~~1.15 – 1.52

~~Last six in J-League Cup~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 3~~4 v 10

~~The market · FC Tokyo win~~60% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc tokyo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mito Hollyhock win	29%	17%	+12
Draw	26%	22%	+3
FC Tokyo win	45%	60%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	53%	52%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Mito Hollyhock or draw	55%	40%	+15
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet	22%	–	–
FC Tokyo clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.1 10.5 7.9 4.0 1 8.0 12.1 9.1 4.6 2 4.6 6.9 5.2 2.6 3 2.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mito Hollyhock down, FC Tokyo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,662 J1 League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

J1 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mito Hollyhock at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). FC Tokyo away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Mito Hollyhock, 1.52 for FC Tokyo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCT 5–2 MIT · MIT 1–1 FCT

Form · last six in J-League Cup

MITO HOLLYHOCK

DWDLLL1–1 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

FC TOKYO

WDWWWW3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jubilo Iwata	2	+5	6
2	Gainare Tottori	2	+4	6
3	Yokohama FC	2	+2	6
4	Mito Hollyhock	2	+7	4
5	Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Matsumoto Yamaga	2	+1	4
7	Sagan Tosu	2	+1	4
8	Tokyo Verdy	2	+1	4
9	Nagoya Grampus	1	+2	3
10	FC Tokyo	1	+2	3
11	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1	+2	3
12	Shimizu S-pulse	1	+2	3
13	Fujieda MYFC	2	+1	3
14	Urawa	1	+1	3
15	Cerezo Osaka	1	+1	3
16	Fagiano Okayama	1	+1	3
17	Roasso Kumamoto	2	+1	3
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	1	+1	3
19	Kawasaki Frontale	1	+1	3
20	JEF United Chiba	2	0	3
21	Kataller Toyama	2	0	3
22	Albirex Niigata	2	0	3
23	Consadole Sapporo	2	0	3
24	Montedio Yamagata	2	0	3
25	Tochigi City	2	0	3
26	Kanazawa	2	−1	3
27	Kitakyushu	2	−1	3
28	Ehime FC	2	−1	3
29	V-varen Nagasaki	2	−1	3
30	Fukushima United	2	−6	3
31	Gamba Osaka	1	0	1
32	Kashiwa Reysol	1	0	1
33	Shonan Bellmare	1	0	1
34	Avispa Fukuoka	1	0	1
35	Kyoto Sanga	1	0	1
36	Machida Zelvia	1	0	1
37	Parceiro Nagano	1	0	1
38	Tokushima Vortis	1	0	1
39	FC Gifu	2	−1	1
40	Vegalta Sendai	1	−1	0
41	FC Ryukyu	1	−1	0
42	Imabari	1	−1	0
43	Nara Club	1	−1	0
44	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1	−1	0
45	Thespakusatsu Gunma	1	−1	0
46	Biwako Shiga	1	−1	0
47	Blaublitz Akita	1	−1	0
48	Iwaki	1	−1	0
49	Kagoshima United	1	−1	0
50	Kochi United	1	−1	0
51	Tochigi SC	1	−1	0
52	Omiya Ardija	1	−2	0
53	Kamatamare Sanuki	1	−2	0
54	Oita Trinita	1	−2	0
55	Renofa Yamaguchi	1	−2	0
56	Vanraure Hachinohe	1	−2	0
57	Sagamihara	1	−3	0
58	Ventforet Kofu	1	−3	0