Matsumoto Yamaga v Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction · J-League Cup

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 13:53

Matsumoto Yamaga 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima win~~72%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.122

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.091

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sanfrecce Hiroshima win at 72%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 72% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 10–18–72
1′KICK-OFF Matsumoto Yamaga v Sanfrecce Hiroshima
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Sanfrecce Hiroshima
10′🟨 YELLOW · 7' S. Kobayashi · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Matsumoto Yamaga 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
21′20′ and it is 0–1: Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored. 0–1 · 2–9–89
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 72% at kick-off, 89% now
25′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–1 · 2–9–89
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 2–9–89
45′HALF-TIME Matsumoto Yamaga 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
46′SECOND HALF Matsumoto Yamaga 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: K. Saso · Off: K. Watanabe
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: H. Murakami · Off: G. Matsumura
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: N. Arai · Off: S. Nakano
57′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: S. Haller · Off: S. Kobayashi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: H. Kawabe · Off: Y. Nakajima
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: S. Tanaka · Off: R. Sato
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Matsumoto Yamaga
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: 72% at kick-off, 92% now
75′🟨 YELLOW · 69' K. Kawakami · Matsumoto Yamaga
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: T. Asano · Off: A. Suzuki
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sanfrecce Hiroshima · On: D. Suga · Off: N. Maeda
81′We said Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: O. Yoshizawa · Off: K. Fujieda
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: O. Yoshizawa · Off: K. Fujieda
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Matsumoto Yamaga · On: D. Higuchi · Off: K. Saso
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Matsumoto Yamaga
FTFULL TIME Matsumoto Yamaga 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FTMatsumoto Yamaga 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Sanfrecce Hiroshima win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Matsumoto Yamaga v Sanfrecce HiroshimaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

Matsumoto Yamaga win10%

Draw18%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win72%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 11:00

VenueSunpro Alwin

Line-ups

Matsumoto Yamaga

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Matsumoto Yamaga

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

15Days since last match15

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Matsumoto Yamaga	2	+1	4
11	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1	+2	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Matsumoto Yamaga

Formation not confirmed

23 R. Koma

5 T. Shirai

43 K. Kaneko

16 T. Miyabe

48 K. Kawakami

30 K. Kitazume

36 G. Matsumura

11 S. Kaneko

45 K. Watanabe

18 R. Sato

38 K. Fujieda

Coach · Nobuhiro Ishizaki

Substitutes

4 · K. Minoda

6 · H. Noda

13 · H. Murakami

19 · S. Tanaka

22 · K. Saso

31 · M. Kobayashi

32 · S. Kunori

34 · O. Yoshizawa

40 · D. Higuchi

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Formation not confirmed

99 I. Ouchi

15 S. Nakano

4 H. Araki

37 Kim Ju-Sung

32 S. Koshimichi

35 Y. Nakajima

14 T. Matsumoto

41 N. Maeda

45 S. Kobayashi

11 M. Kato

10 A. Suzuki

Coach · Bartosch Gaul

Substitutes

5 · N. Arai

6 · H. Kawabe

8 · T. Kawamura

18 · D. Suga

21 · Y. Tanaka

22 · S. Haller

23 · S. Ayukawa

29 · T. Asano

46 · R. Noguchi

Our number · sanfrecce hiroshima winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

72% The market76%

Us72%

~~Market~~76%

We make Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.6–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Matsumoto Yamaga v Sanfrecce Hiroshima~~0.65 – 2.16

~~Last six in J-League Cup~~W1 D4 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 3~~6 v 11

~~The market · Sanfrecce Hiroshima win~~76% · ours 72%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sanfrecce hiroshima win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Matsumoto Yamaga win	10%	8%	+1
Draw	18%	16%	+2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win	72%	76%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	64%	−11
Both teams to score	43%	48%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	83%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	31%	44%	−13
Matsumoto Yamaga or draw	28%	24%	+4
Matsumoto Yamaga clean sheet	12%	–	–
Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet	52%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 14.1%

0123450 6.3 12.7 14.1 10.1 5.5 2.41 3.6 8.7 9.1 6.6 3.5 2 2.7 3.0 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Matsumoto Yamaga down, Sanfrecce Hiroshima across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Matsumoto Yamaga play in the J2/J3 League, Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Matsumoto Yamaga are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.65 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga, 2.16 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in J-League Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in J-League Cup

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA

DDDLDW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–0

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA

LWWWWW2–3 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jubilo Iwata	2	+5	6
2	Gainare Tottori	2	+4	6
3	Yokohama FC	2	+2	6
4	Mito Hollyhock	2	+7	4
5	Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Matsumoto Yamaga	2	+1	4
7	Sagan Tosu	2	+1	4
8	Tokyo Verdy	2	+1	4
9	Nagoya Grampus	1	+2	3
10	FC Tokyo	1	+2	3
11	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1	+2	3
12	Shimizu S-pulse	1	+2	3
13	Fujieda MYFC	2	+1	3
14	Urawa	1	+1	3
15	Cerezo Osaka	1	+1	3
16	Fagiano Okayama	1	+1	3
17	Roasso Kumamoto	2	+1	3
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	1	+1	3
19	Kawasaki Frontale	1	+1	3
20	JEF United Chiba	2	0	3
21	Kataller Toyama	2	0	3
22	Albirex Niigata	2	0	3
23	Consadole Sapporo	2	0	3
24	Montedio Yamagata	2	0	3
25	Tochigi City	2	0	3
26	Kanazawa	2	−1	3
27	Kitakyushu	2	−1	3
28	Ehime FC	2	−1	3
29	V-varen Nagasaki	2	−1	3
30	Fukushima United	2	−6	3
31	Gamba Osaka	1	0	1
32	Kashiwa Reysol	1	0	1
33	Shonan Bellmare	1	0	1
34	Avispa Fukuoka	1	0	1
35	Kyoto Sanga	1	0	1
36	Machida Zelvia	1	0	1
37	Parceiro Nagano	1	0	1
38	Tokushima Vortis	1	0	1
39	FC Gifu	2	−1	1
40	Vegalta Sendai	1	−1	0
41	FC Ryukyu	1	−1	0
42	Imabari	1	−1	0
43	Nara Club	1	−1	0
44	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1	−1	0
45	Thespakusatsu Gunma	1	−1	0
46	Biwako Shiga	1	−1	0
47	Blaublitz Akita	1	−1	0
48	Iwaki	1	−1	0
49	Kagoshima United	1	−1	0
50	Kochi United	1	−1	0
51	Tochigi SC	1	−1	0
52	Omiya Ardija	1	−2	0
53	Kamatamare Sanuki	1	−2	0
54	Oita Trinita	1	−2	0
55	Renofa Yamaguchi	1	−2	0
56	Vanraure Hachinohe	1	−2	0
57	Sagamihara	1	−3	0
58	Ventforet Kofu	1	−3	0