Jubilo Iwata v Kawasaki Frontale prediction · J-League Cup

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 13:53

Jubilo Iwata 0–4 Kawasaki Frontale KAWASAKI FRONTALE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kawasaki Frontale win~~52%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.341

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.318

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kawasaki Frontale win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kawasaki Frontale 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 25–22–52
1′KICK-OFF Jubilo Iwata v Kawasaki Frontale
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Jubilo Iwata 0–1 Kawasaki Frontale
21′Y. Maruyama scores for Kawasaki Frontale on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–16–75
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Kawasaki Frontale win: 52% at kick-off, 75% now
25′We said Kawasaki Frontale at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 9–16–75
32′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 8–17–75
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Kawasaki Frontale
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' S. Kawahara · Kawasaki Frontale
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Jubilo Iwata
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' K. Fujiwara · Jubilo Iwata
45′HALF-TIME Jubilo Iwata 0–1 Kawasaki Frontale
46′SECOND HALF Jubilo Iwata 0–1 Kawasaki Frontale
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Pedro Romano · Off: T. Takahashi
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Jubilo Iwata 0–2 Kawasaki Frontale
51′50′ and it is 0–2: Kawasaki Frontale have scored. 0–2 · 1–4–95
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Kawasaki Frontale win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Jubilo Iwata · On: I. Kawasaki · Off: S. Nishikubo
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Jubilo Iwata · On: N. Koike · Off: H. Tameda
58′We said Kawasaki Frontale at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–2 · 1–4–96
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Jubilo Iwata · On: L. Nozawa · Off: R. Ota
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Jubilo Iwata
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Jubilo Iwata 0–3 Kawasaki Frontale
73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' D. Kaneko · Jubilo Iwata
74′Kawasaki Frontale find the net on 72′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
76′We said Kawasaki Frontale at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Marcinho · Off: R. Osa
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Jubilo Iwata · On: Yuri Lara · Off: K. Fujiwara
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Jubilo Iwata · On: J. Victor · Off: M. Ohara
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kawasaki Frontale · On: A. Sasaki · Off: Y. Matsunagane
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kawasaki Frontale · On: K. Mochiyama · Off: K. Queiroz
84′A goal for Kawasaki Frontale on 84′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Jubilo Iwata 0–4 Kawasaki Frontale
86′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
89′88′ and it is 0–5: Kawasaki Frontale have scored. 0–5 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Jubilo Iwata 0–5 Kawasaki Frontale
89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' Kawasaki Frontale
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kawasaki Frontale · On: Y. Wakizaka · Off: Y. Ozeki
FTFULL TIME Jubilo Iwata 0–4 Kawasaki Frontale
FTJubilo Iwata 0–4 Kawasaki Frontale · Kawasaki Frontale win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Jubilo Iwata v Kawasaki FrontaleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

Jubilo Iwata win25%

Draw23%

Kawasaki Frontale win52%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 11:00

VenueYamaha Stadium

Line-ups

Jubilo Iwata

Kawasaki Frontale

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Jubilo Iwata

Kawasaki Frontale

15Days since last match15

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jubilo Iwata	2	+5	6
19	Kawasaki Frontale	1	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Jubilo Iwata

Formation not confirmed

21 R. Miura

26 S. Nishikubo

58 H. Nishino

6 D. Kaneko

66 S. Masuda

7 R. Uehara

77 K. Fujiwara

14 M. Ohara

11 Matheus Peixoto

8 H. Tameda

32 R. Ota

Coach · Tadahiro Akiba

Substitutes

15 · Yuri Lara

19 · L. Nozawa

25 · N. Koike

29 · K. Kuwabara

31 · Iago Teles

37 · I. Kawasaki

51 · K. Nakajima

99 · J. Victor

2 · Danilo Cardoso

Kawasaki Frontale

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Thebault-Yamaguchi

29 R. Yamahara

2 Y. Matsunagane

28 Y. Maruyama

35 T. Takahashi

19 S. Kawahara

26 K. Yui

25 S. Yamaichi

16 Y. Ozeki

34 R. Osa

93 K. Queiroz

Coach · Shigetoshi Hasebe

Substitutes

4 · Pedro Romano

5 · A. Sasaki

6 · Y. Yamamoto

13 · S. Miura

14 · Y. Wakizaka

17 · T. Ito

20 · K. Mochiyama

21 · Y. Hayasaka

23 · Marcinho

Our number · kawasaki frontale winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

52% The market54%

Us52%

~~Market~~54%

We make Kawasaki Frontale a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jubilo Iwata v Kawasaki Frontale~~1.27 – 1.93

~~Last six in J-League Cup~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~1 v 19

~~The market · Kawasaki Frontale win~~54% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kawasaki frontale win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jubilo Iwata win	25%	22%	+3
Draw	23%	24%	−2
Kawasaki Frontale win	52%	54%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	55%	+7
Both teams to score	62%	56%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	83%	77%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	40%	34%	+6
Jubilo Iwata or draw	48%	46%	+2
Jubilo Iwata clean sheet	15%	–	–
Kawasaki Frontale clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.4 7.5 7.6 4.9 2.3 1 4.9 10.3 9.6 6.2 3.0 2 3.3 6.4 6.1 3.9 3 2.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jubilo Iwata down, Kawasaki Frontale across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Jubilo Iwata play in the J2/J3 League, Kawasaki Frontale in the J1 League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Jubilo Iwata are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Jubilo Iwata, 1.93 for Kawasaki Frontale. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in J-League Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in J-League Cup

JUBILO IWATA

WDLWWW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 4–2

KAWASAKI FRONTALE

LDDWLW0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jubilo Iwata	2	+5	6
2	Gainare Tottori	2	+4	6
3	Yokohama FC	2	+2	6
4	Mito Hollyhock	2	+7	4
5	Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Matsumoto Yamaga	2	+1	4
7	Sagan Tosu	2	+1	4
8	Tokyo Verdy	2	+1	4
9	Nagoya Grampus	1	+2	3
10	FC Tokyo	1	+2	3
11	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1	+2	3
12	Shimizu S-pulse	1	+2	3
13	Fujieda MYFC	2	+1	3
14	Urawa	1	+1	3
15	Cerezo Osaka	1	+1	3
16	Fagiano Okayama	1	+1	3
17	Roasso Kumamoto	2	+1	3
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	1	+1	3
19	Kawasaki Frontale	1	+1	3
20	JEF United Chiba	2	0	3
21	Kataller Toyama	2	0	3
22	Albirex Niigata	2	0	3
23	Consadole Sapporo	2	0	3
24	Montedio Yamagata	2	0	3
25	Tochigi City	2	0	3
26	Kanazawa	2	−1	3
27	Kitakyushu	2	−1	3
28	Ehime FC	2	−1	3
29	V-varen Nagasaki	2	−1	3
30	Fukushima United	2	−6	3
31	Gamba Osaka	1	0	1
32	Kashiwa Reysol	1	0	1
33	Shonan Bellmare	1	0	1
34	Avispa Fukuoka	1	0	1
35	Kyoto Sanga	1	0	1
36	Machida Zelvia	1	0	1
37	Parceiro Nagano	1	0	1
38	Tokushima Vortis	1	0	1
39	FC Gifu	2	−1	1
40	Vegalta Sendai	1	−1	0
41	FC Ryukyu	1	−1	0
42	Imabari	1	−1	0
43	Nara Club	1	−1	0
44	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1	−1	0
45	Thespakusatsu Gunma	1	−1	0
46	Biwako Shiga	1	−1	0
47	Blaublitz Akita	1	−1	0
48	Iwaki	1	−1	0
49	Kagoshima United	1	−1	0
50	Kochi United	1	−1	0
51	Tochigi SC	1	−1	0
52	Omiya Ardija	1	−2	0
53	Kamatamare Sanuki	1	−2	0
54	Oita Trinita	1	−2	0
55	Renofa Yamaguchi	1	−2	0
56	Vanraure Hachinohe	1	−2	0
57	Sagamihara	1	−3	0
58	Ventforet Kofu	1	−3	0