Gainare Tottori v Cerezo Osaka prediction · J-League Cup

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 13:53

Gainare Tottori 2–3 Cerezo Osaka CEREZO OSAKA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cerezo Osaka win~~66%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.179

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.115

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cerezo Osaka win at 66%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cerezo Osaka was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 15–19–66
1′KICK-OFF Gainare Tottori v Cerezo Osaka
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Gainare Tottori 0–1 Cerezo Osaka
12′Cerezo Osaka find the net on 11′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–11–85
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Cerezo Osaka win: 66% at kick-off, 85% now
17′We published Cerezo Osaka at 66%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 4–11–84
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Gainare Tottori 1–1 Cerezo Osaka
32′A goal for Gainare Tottori on 31′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 16–27–57
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Cerezo Osaka win: 66% at kick-off, 57% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Cerezo Osaka win: 66% at kick-off, 55% now
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Gainare Tottori 1–2 Cerezo Osaka
41′37′ and it is 1–2: P. Sabbag on the scoresheet for Cerezo Osaka. 1–2 · 3–12–84
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Cerezo Osaka win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
45′HALF-TIME Gainare Tottori 1–2 Cerezo Osaka
46′SECOND HALF Gainare Tottori 1–2 Cerezo Osaka
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Gainare Tottori 2–2 Cerezo Osaka
51′Gainare Tottori level it on 47′ through H. Konishi. 2–2. 2–2 · 15–37–48
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Cerezo Osaka win: 66% at kick-off, 48% now
58′We said Cerezo Osaka at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 2–2 · 15–42–43
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Cerezo Osaka win: 66% at kick-off, 43% now
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Gainare Tottori
61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' M. Kaneura · Gainare Tottori
69′We said Cerezo Osaka at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 12–54–34
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Cerezo Osaka win: 66% at kick-off, 34% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Cerezo Osaka win 34%)
70′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 12–55–33
73′We said Cerezo Osaka at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 11–60–29
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gainare Tottori · On: S. Nikaido · Off: M. Kaneura
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gainare Tottori · On: N. Miki · Off: A. Tojo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cerezo Osaka · On: S. Sakuragawa · Off: P. Sabbag
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cerezo Osaka · On: S. Tanaka · Off: K. Okazawa
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cerezo Osaka · On: Y. Yokoyama · Off: Y. Komi
77′We said Cerezo Osaka at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 9–66–24
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Cerezo Osaka win: 66% at kick-off, 24% now
81′We said Cerezo Osaka at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 7–75–18
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Gainare Tottori · On: I. Yoshida · Off: S. Yamamoto
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Gainare Tottori · On: Y. Tasei · Off: I. Fujita
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Cerezo Osaka · On: H. Okuda · Off: R. Sakata
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Cerezo Osaka win: 66% at kick-off, 15% now
85′We said Cerezo Osaka at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 2–2 · 5–83–12
89′A goal for Cerezo Osaka on 89′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–3–97
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Gainare Tottori 2–3 Cerezo Osaka
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Cerezo Osaka win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Cerezo Osaka win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
90′We published Cerezo Osaka at 66%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–3 · 0–3–97
90′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–3–97
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Cerezo Osaka · On: L. Fernandes · Off: S. Uejo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Gainare Tottori · On: I. Yoshida · Off: S. Yamamoto
90′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Gainare Tottori · On: Y. Tasei · Off: I. Fujita
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Gainare Tottori · On: K. Hoshi · Off: H. Konishi
FTFULL TIME Gainare Tottori 2–3 Cerezo Osaka
FTGainare Tottori 2–3 Cerezo Osaka · Cerezo Osaka win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Gainare Tottori v Cerezo OsakaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

Gainare Tottori win15%

Draw20%

Cerezo Osaka win66%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 11:00

VenueAxis Bird Stadium

Line-ups

Gainare Tottori

Cerezo Osaka

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gainare Tottori

Cerezo Osaka

15Days since last match15

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Gainare Tottori	2	+4	6
15	Cerezo Osaka	1	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gainare Tottori

Formation not confirmed

71 U. Hayakawa

42 M. Kaneura

3 S. T. Nozawa Van Eerden

55 H. Oshima

15 T. Kiuchi

32 M. Moon

8 A. Tojo

2 I. Fujita

14 T. Kawamura

19 S. Yamamoto

29 H. Konishi

Coach · Kentaro Hayashi

Substitutes

4 · S. Nikaido

7 · R. Arai

10 · N. Miki

16 · Y. Tasei

22 · I. Yoshida

24 · K. Hoshi

39 · J. Katori

44 · M. Uehara

88 · A. Burns

Cerezo Osaka

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Abe

27 D. Cools

97 T. Takahashi

15 J. Hernandez

2 T. Nakamura

28 K. Okazawa

8 S. Kagawa

17 R. Sakata

7 S. Uejo

41 Y. Komi

19 P. Sabbag

Coach · Pablo Machin

Substitutes

4 · R. Inoue

6 · K. Noborizato

9 · S. Sakuragawa

10 · S. Tanaka

14 · Y. Yokoyama

16 · H. Okuda

23 · K. Nakamura

45 · K. Nagasoe

77 · L. Fernandes

Our number · cerezo osaka winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 10:14 · locked at kick-off

66% The market73%

Us66%

~~Market~~73%

We make Cerezo Osaka a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gainare Tottori v Cerezo Osaka~~0.93 – 2.19

~~Last six in J-League Cup~~W2 D0 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~2 v 15

~~The market · Cerezo Osaka win~~73% · ours 66%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cerezo osaka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gainare Tottori win	15%	11%	+4
Draw	20%	17%	+3
Cerezo Osaka win	66%	73%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	60%	61%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	49%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	38%	41%	−3
Gainare Tottori or draw	34%	27%	+7
Gainare Tottori clean sheet	11%	–	–
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.6%

0123450 4.7 9.4 10.6 7.7 4.2 1 3.8 9.3 9.9 7.2 3.9 2 4.2 4.6 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gainare Tottori down, Cerezo Osaka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Gainare Tottori play in the J2/J3 League, Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Gainare Tottori are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Gainare Tottori, 2.19 for Cerezo Osaka. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in J-League Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in J-League Cup

GAINARE TOTTORI

LLWW2–5 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–0

CEREZO OSAKA

WDWWLW5–1 · 3–3 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jubilo Iwata	2	+5	6
2	Gainare Tottori	2	+4	6
3	Yokohama FC	2	+2	6
4	Mito Hollyhock	2	+7	4
5	Osaka	2	+3	4
6	Matsumoto Yamaga	2	+1	4
7	Sagan Tosu	2	+1	4
8	Tokyo Verdy	2	+1	4
9	Nagoya Grampus	1	+2	3
10	FC Tokyo	1	+2	3
11	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1	+2	3
12	Shimizu S-pulse	1	+2	3
13	Fujieda MYFC	2	+1	3
14	Urawa	1	+1	3
15	Cerezo Osaka	1	+1	3
16	Fagiano Okayama	1	+1	3
17	Roasso Kumamoto	2	+1	3
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	1	+1	3
19	Kawasaki Frontale	1	+1	3
20	JEF United Chiba	2	0	3
21	Kataller Toyama	2	0	3
22	Albirex Niigata	2	0	3
23	Consadole Sapporo	2	0	3
24	Montedio Yamagata	2	0	3
25	Tochigi City	2	0	3
26	Kanazawa	2	−1	3
27	Kitakyushu	2	−1	3
28	Ehime FC	2	−1	3
29	V-varen Nagasaki	2	−1	3
30	Fukushima United	2	−6	3
31	Gamba Osaka	1	0	1
32	Kashiwa Reysol	1	0	1
33	Shonan Bellmare	1	0	1
34	Avispa Fukuoka	1	0	1
35	Kyoto Sanga	1	0	1
36	Machida Zelvia	1	0	1
37	Parceiro Nagano	1	0	1
38	Tokushima Vortis	1	0	1
39	FC Gifu	2	−1	1
40	Vegalta Sendai	1	−1	0
41	FC Ryukyu	1	−1	0
42	Imabari	1	−1	0
43	Nara Club	1	−1	0
44	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1	−1	0
45	Thespakusatsu Gunma	1	−1	0
46	Biwako Shiga	1	−1	0
47	Blaublitz Akita	1	−1	0
48	Iwaki	1	−1	0
49	Kagoshima United	1	−1	0
50	Kochi United	1	−1	0
51	Tochigi SC	1	−1	0
52	Omiya Ardija	1	−2	0
53	Kamatamare Sanuki	1	−2	0
54	Oita Trinita	1	−2	0
55	Renofa Yamaguchi	1	−2	0
56	Vanraure Hachinohe	1	−2	0
57	Sagamihara	1	−3	0
58	Ventforet Kofu	1	−3	0