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Tivoli Gardens v Racing United

Tivoli Gardens

3–4Full time

Racing United

Premier League · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 02:00

Tivoli Gardens 3–4 Racing United RACING UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Racing United win~~42%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.543

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Racing United win at 42%.
0′Much as we predicted: Racing United was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 30–27–43
1′KICK-OFF Tivoli Gardens v Racing United
13′⚽ GOAL · 14' Tivoli Gardens 0–0 Racing United
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Tivoli Gardens 0–1 Racing United
15′A goal for Tivoli Gardens on 16′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–30–41
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Tivoli Gardens 1–1 Racing United · N. Ellis
15′⚽ GOAL · 16' Tivoli Gardens 1–1 Racing United
17′18′ and it is 1–1: Racing United have scored. 1–1 · 29–30–41
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Tivoli Gardens 1–1 Racing United
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Tivoli Gardens 1–2 Racing United · S. Clarke
19′We published Racing United at 42%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–2 · 10–19–71
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Racing United win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Racing United win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 35' Tivoli Gardens 1–2 Racing United
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Tivoli Gardens 2–2 Racing United · N. Ellis
45′SECOND HALF Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United
45′⚽ GOAL · 14' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United · N. Ellis
45′⚽ GOAL · 16' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United · S. Clarke
45′⚽ GOAL · 18' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United · N. Ellis
45′⚽ GOAL · 35' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United · L. Williams
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United · J. Cole
46′⚽ GOAL · 14' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United · N. Ellis
46′⚽ GOAL · 16' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United · S. Clarke
46′⚽ GOAL · 18' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United · N. Ellis
46′⚽ GOAL · 35' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United · L. Williams
46′⚽ GOAL · 48' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United
46′⚽ GOAL · 48' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United · J. Cole
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Tivoli Gardens 2–2 Racing United
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United · L. Williams
77′⚽ GOAL · 78' Tivoli Gardens 2–3 Racing United
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Tivoli Gardens 2–4 Racing United · J. Cole
88′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tivoli Gardens 2–4 Racing United
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tivoli Gardens 3–4 Racing United · C. Taylor
FTFULL TIME Tivoli Gardens 3–4 Racing United
FTTivoli Gardens 3–4 Racing United · Racing United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 22:45 · locked at kick-off

Tivoli Gardens win30%

Draw28%

Racing United win42%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 23:05

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tivoli Gardens

Racing United

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Racing United	4	+7	9
4	Tivoli Gardens	4	+5	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · racing united winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 22:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Racing United a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · racing united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tivoli Gardens win	30%	31%	−2
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Racing United win	42%	40%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%	0
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−1
Tivoli Gardens or draw	58%	60%	−3
Tivoli Gardens clean sheet	26%	–	–
Racing United clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.6 10.8 7.9 3.7 1 8.6 13.0 8.3 3.9 2 5.2 6.8 4.6 2.1 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tivoli Gardens down, Racing United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,187 Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 0.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tivoli Gardens at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Racing United away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Tivoli Gardens, 1.39 for Racing United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~0.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~0 of 6

~~Last meetings~~RAC 0–0 TIV · TIV 0–0 RAC · RAC 0–0 TIV · TIV 1–0 RAC

Form · last six in Premier League

TIVOLI GARDENS

LLWDDW0–2 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

RACING UNITED

DLWWLW3–3 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montego Bay United	5	+6	13
2	Waterhouse	4	+13	10
3	Racing United	4	+7	9
4	Tivoli Gardens	4	+5	8
5	Tru-Juice	4	+3	7
6	Cavalier	4	0	7
7	Portmore United	3	+3	5
8	Chapelton	5	−7	5
9	Arnett Gardens	4	+1	4
10	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	−3	4
11	Dunbeholden	5	−6	3
12	Molynes United	5	−8	3
13	Treasure Beach	4	−3	2
14	Humble Lions	5	−11	2