Tivoli Gardens v Dunbeholden prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:30

Tivoli Gardens 3–0 Dunbeholden TIVOLI GARDENS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tivoli Gardens win~~47%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.419

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.356

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tivoli Gardens win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tivoli Gardens was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
1′KICK-OFF Tivoli Gardens v Dunbeholden
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Tivoli Gardens win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–5
45′HALF-TIME Tivoli Gardens 1–0 Dunbeholden
45′SECOND HALF Tivoli Gardens 1–0 Dunbeholden
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Tivoli Gardens win 36%)
48′Tivoli Gardens find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
48′We published Tivoli Gardens at 47%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Tivoli Gardens 1–0 Dunbeholden
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Tivoli Gardens win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Tivoli Gardens win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 17%)
57′We published Tivoli Gardens at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
71′We published Tivoli Gardens at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Tivoli Gardens win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
79′We published Tivoli Gardens at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
86′We published Tivoli Gardens at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′Tivoli Gardens score on 90′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Tivoli Gardens win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
93′We published Tivoli Gardens at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Tivoli Gardens 2–0 Dunbeholden
94′A goal for Tivoli Gardens on 90′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
96′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Tivoli Gardens 3–0 Dunbeholden
FTFULL TIME Tivoli Gardens 3–0 Dunbeholden
FTTivoli Gardens 3–0 Dunbeholden · Tivoli Gardens win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tivoli Gardens are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tivoli Gardens 47%, draw 27%, Dunbeholden 26%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Tivoli Gardens v DunbeholdenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Tivoli Gardens win47%

Draw27%

Dunbeholden win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tivoli Gardens

Dunbeholden

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Tivoli Gardens	5	+4	8
11	Dunbeholden	5	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tivoli gardens winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

47% The market51%

Us47%

~~Market~~51%

We make Tivoli Gardens a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tivoli Gardens v Dunbeholden~~1.54 – 1.07

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L1 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 3~~4 v 11

~~The market · Tivoli Gardens win~~51% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tivoli Gardens win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tivoli Gardens win	47%	51%	−4
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Dunbeholden win	26%	23%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	55%	−7
Both teams to score	51%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	34%	−7
Tivoli Gardens or draw	74%	77%	−3
Tivoli Gardens clean sheet	35%	–	–
Dunbeholden clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.6 7.3 4.3 1 10.7 12.6 6.3 2.3 2 8.7 8.9 4.7 3 4.5 4.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tivoli Gardens down, Dunbeholden across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tivoli Gardens at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dunbeholden away: 0.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Tivoli Gardens, 1.07 for Dunbeholden. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TIV 2–0 DUN · TIV 2–1 DUN · DUN 1–0 TIV · DUN 2–4 TIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

TIVOLI GARDENS

WDDWL3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–4

DUNBEHOLDEN

LLLLW1–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montego Bay United	5	+6	13
2	Racing United	5	+8	12
3	Waterhouse	5	+13	11
4	Tivoli Gardens	5	+4	8
5	Tru-Juice	5	+3	8
6	Cavalier	4	0	7
7	Portmore United	3	+3	5
8	Chapelton	5	−7	5
9	Arnett Gardens	4	+1	4
10	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	−3	4
11	Dunbeholden	5	−6	3
12	Molynes United	5	−8	3
13	Treasure Beach	4	−3	2
14	Humble Lions	5	−11	2