Mount Pleasant Academy v Montego Bay United prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mount Pleasant AcademyDrawMontego Bay United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mount Pleasant Academy 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mount Pleasant Academy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mount Pleasant Academy 48%, draw 27%, Montego Bay United 25%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Mount Pleasant Academy v Montego Bay UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

Mount Pleasant Academy win48%

Draw27%

Montego Bay United win25%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 01:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mount Pleasant Academy

Montego Bay United

5Days since last match9

Last match: 23 Oct · CONCACAF Caribbean Club Championship

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mount pleasant academy winFirst published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Mount Pleasant Academy a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mount Pleasant Academy v Montego Bay United~~1.50 – 1.02

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 14~~11 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mount Pleasant Academy win	48%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Montego Bay United win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Mount Pleasant Academy or draw	75%	–	–
Mount Pleasant Academy clean sheet	37%	–	–
Montego Bay United clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.2 7.6 4.2 1 11.4 12.6 6.1 2.1 2 9.0 8.9 4.5 3 4.6 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mount Pleasant Academy down, Montego Bay United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,195 Premier League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.7% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mount Pleasant Academy at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Montego Bay United away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Mount Pleasant Academy, 1.02 for Montego Bay United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MON 2–3 MOU · MOU 2–1 MON · MON 0–1 MOU · MOU 2–2 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

MOUNT PLEASANT ACADEMY

LLWD0–4 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

MONTEGO BAY UNITED

WDWWWD2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montego Bay United	6	+6	14
2	Racing United	6	+8	13
3	Waterhouse	6	+13	12
4	Tivoli Gardens	6	+7	11
5	Tru-Juice	6	+7	11
6	Chapelton	6	−6	8
7	Cavalier	5	−1	7
8	Molynes United	6	−7	6
9	Portmore United	3	+3	5
10	Arnett Gardens	5	+1	5
11	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	−3	4
12	Dunbeholden	6	−9	3
13	Treasure Beach	5	−4	2
14	Humble Lions	6	−15	2