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Montego Bay United v Arnett Gardens

Montego Bay United

2–2Full time

Arnett Gardens

Premier League · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:30

Montego Bay United 2–2 Arnett Gardens MONTEGO BAY UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Montego Bay United win~~44%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.851

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.966

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Montego Bay United win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Montego Bay United 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
1′KICK-OFF Montego Bay United v Arnett Gardens
13′Montego Bay United score on 13′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–18–13
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Montego Bay United 1–0 Arnett Gardens
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Montego Bay United win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
14′We said Montego Bay United at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–18–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
45′HALF-TIME Montego Bay United 1–0 Arnett Gardens
45′SECOND HALF Montego Bay United 1–0 Arnett Gardens
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Montego Bay United win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
50′We said Montego Bay United at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Montego Bay United 2–0 Arnett Gardens
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Montego Bay United win: 44% at kick-off, 93% now
51′Montego Bay United find the net on 50′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Montego Bay United win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
57′We said Montego Bay United at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
79′A goal for Arnett Gardens on 78′. 2–0 · 99–1–0
79′We said Montego Bay United at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–11–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Montego Bay United 2–1 Arnett Gardens
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Montego Bay United win: 44% at kick-off, 87% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Montego Bay United win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
90′2–2 at the end. Our 44% on Montego Bay United misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
91′Arnett Gardens score on 90′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 4–92–3
91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Montego Bay United 2–2 Arnett Gardens
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Montego Bay United win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Montego Bay United win 4%)
92′We said Montego Bay United at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–3
92′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 4–94–3
FTFULL TIME Montego Bay United 2–2 Arnett Gardens
FTMontego Bay United 2–2 Arnett Gardens · Montego Bay United win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Montego Bay United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Montego Bay United 44%, draw 25%, Arnett Gardens 31%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Montego Bay United v Arnett GardensBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Montego Bay United win44%

Draw25%

Arnett Gardens win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Montego Bay United

Arnett Gardens

7Days since last match12

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

Last match: 6 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · montego bay united winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

44% The market58%

Us44%

~~Market~~58%

We make Montego Bay United a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Montego Bay United v Arnett Gardens~~1.67 – 1.34

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 4~~1 v 9

~~The market · Montego Bay United win~~58% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Montego Bay United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Montego Bay United win	44%	58%	−14
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Arnett Gardens win	31%	18%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	38%	−3
Montego Bay United or draw	69%	82%	−13
Montego Bay United clean sheet	27%	–	–
Arnett Gardens clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.1 6.1 4.5 2.1 1 7.7 11.5 7.2 3.2 2 6.8 8.8 5.8 2.6 3 3.8 4.9 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Montego Bay United down, Arnett Gardens across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Montego Bay United at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Arnett Gardens away: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Montego Bay United, 1.34 for Arnett Gardens. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ARN 1–0 MON · MON 1–1 ARN · ARN 0–1 MON · ARN 4–2 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

MONTEGO BAY UNITED

WDWWW2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

ARNETT GARDENS

LWLD2–3 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montego Bay United	5	+6	13
2	Racing United	5	+8	12
3	Waterhouse	5	+13	11
4	Tivoli Gardens	5	+4	8
5	Tru-Juice	5	+3	8
6	Cavalier	4	0	7
7	Portmore United	3	+3	5
8	Chapelton	5	−7	5
9	Arnett Gardens	4	+1	4
10	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	−3	4
11	Dunbeholden	5	−6	3
12	Molynes United	5	−8	3
13	Treasure Beach	4	−3	2
14	Humble Lions	5	−11	2