Molynes United v Cavalier prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 02:00

Molynes United 1–0 Cavalier CAVALIER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cavalier win~~55%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.978

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.092

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cavalier win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cavalier was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 21–24–54
1′KICK-OFF Molynes United v Cavalier
19′Molynes United score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 49–25–26
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Molynes United 1–0 Cavalier
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Cavalier win: 55% at kick-off, 26% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Molynes United win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Cavalier win 51%)
20′We said Cavalier at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 49–25–26
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Cavalier win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
24′We said Cavalier at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 50–25–24
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 52–26–22
37′We said Cavalier at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 54–27–19
45′HALF-TIME Molynes United 1–0 Cavalier
45′SECOND HALF Molynes United 1–0 Cavalier
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Cavalier win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
49′We said Cavalier at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 59–27–14
61′We said Cavalier at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Cavalier win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
72′We said Cavalier at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 74–21–4
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Molynes United
77′A red card for Molynes United on 76′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 80–18–3
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' O. Murray · Molynes United
78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Cavalier
79′Red cards for both sides: Molynes United down to ten, Cavalier to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 82–16–2
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Cavalier at 55% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Molynes United 1–0 Cavalier
FTMolynes United 1–0 Cavalier · Cavalier win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cavalier are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Molynes United 21%, draw 24%, Cavalier 55%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Molynes United v CavalierBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Molynes United win21%

Draw24%

Cavalier win55%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 23:05

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Molynes United

Cavalier

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Cavalier	4	0	7
11	Molynes United	5	−8	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cavalier winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

55% The market60%

Us55%

~~Market~~60%

We make Cavalier a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Molynes United v Cavalier~~1.03 – 1.81

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~11 v 7

~~The market · Cavalier win~~60% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cavalier win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Molynes United win	21%	18%	+3
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Cavalier win	55%	60%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	53%	58%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
Molynes United or draw	45%	40%	+5
Molynes United clean sheet	17%	–	–
Cavalier clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 7.0 10.1 9.4 5.7 2.7 1 5.6 11.3 9.3 5.6 2.7 2 3.2 5.5 4.8 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Molynes United down, Cavalier across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,193 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Molynes United at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cavalier away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Molynes United, 1.81 for Cavalier. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAV 2–0 MOL · CAV 2–1 MOL · MOL 1–0 CAV · CAV 4–3 MOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

MOLYNES UNITED

WLLLL3–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 0–1

CAVALIER

WWDL2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montego Bay United	6	+6	14
2	Racing United	5	+8	12
3	Waterhouse	5	+13	11
4	Tivoli Gardens	6	+7	11
5	Tru-Juice	6	+7	11
6	Chapelton	6	−6	8
7	Cavalier	4	0	7
8	Portmore United	3	+3	5
9	Arnett Gardens	5	+1	5
10	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	−3	4
11	Molynes United	5	−8	3
12	Dunbeholden	6	−9	3
13	Treasure Beach	5	−4	2
14	Humble Lions	6	−15	2