Humble Lions v Racing United prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Humble LionsDrawRacing United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Racing United 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Racing United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Humble Lions 16%, draw 21%, Racing United 63%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Humble Lions v Racing UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Humble Lions win16%

Draw21%

Racing United win63%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Humble Lions

Racing United

7Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Racing United	6	+8	13
14	Humble Lions	6	−15	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · racing united winFirst published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Racing United a 63% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–2.1, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Humble Lions v Racing United~~0.85 – 2.10

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 13~~14 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Humble Lions win	16%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Racing United win	63%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Humble Lions or draw	37%	–	–
Humble Lions clean sheet	15%	–	–
Racing United clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.8%

0123450 6.7 10.6 10.8 7.5 4.3 2.21 4.7 9.9 8.8 5.9 3.2 2 2.4 4.2 3.8 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Humble Lions down, Racing United across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,195 Premier League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.7% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Humble Lions at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Racing United away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Humble Lions, 2.10 for Racing United. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~RAC 2–1 HUM · HUM 1–1 RAC · RAC 1–1 HUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

HUMBLE LIONS

LLLDDL0–3 · 0–5 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–4

RACING UNITED

WWLWWD3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 6–0 · 4–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montego Bay United	6	+6	14
2	Racing United	6	+8	13
3	Waterhouse	6	+13	12
4	Tivoli Gardens	6	+7	11
5	Tru-Juice	6	+7	11
6	Chapelton	6	−6	8
7	Cavalier	5	−1	7
8	Molynes United	6	−7	6
9	Portmore United	3	+3	5
10	Arnett Gardens	5	+1	5
11	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	−3	4
12	Dunbeholden	6	−9	3
13	Treasure Beach	5	−4	2
14	Humble Lions	6	−15	2