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Humble Lions v Chapelton

Humble Lions

0–0Full time

Chapelton

Premier League · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Humble Lions 0–0 Chapelton CHAPELTON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chapelton win~~39%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.829

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.815

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chapelton win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chapelton 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
1′KICK-OFF Humble Lions v Chapelton
29′Little has changed for our model: Chapelton 39% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 32–31–37
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
45′SECOND HALF Humble Lions 0–0 Chapelton
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
84′⚽ GOAL · 85' Humble Lions 0–0 Chapelton
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 95' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 96' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chapelton win 33%)
FTFULL TIME Humble Lions 0–0 Chapelton
FTHumble Lions 0–0 Chapelton · Chapelton win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 10 Oct 00:00

Humble Lions win35%

Draw26%

Chapelton win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Humble Lions

Chapelton

7Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Chapelton	4	−7	4
13	Humble Lions	4	−11	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chapelton winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

39% The market46%

Us39%

~~Market~~46%

We make Chapelton a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chapelton win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Humble Lions win	35%	27%	+8
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Chapelton win	39%	46%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	50%	+4
Both teams to score	57%	54%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	73%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	30%	+2
Humble Lions or draw	61%	54%	+7
Humble Lions clean sheet	24%	–	–
Chapelton clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.9 7.8 6.1 3.2 1 7.5 11.8 8.0 4.1 2 5.6 7.6 5.4 2.7 3 2.6 3.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Humble Lions down, Chapelton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,184 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Humble Lions at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chapelton away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Humble Lions, 1.51 for Chapelton. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CHA 2–1 HUM · HUM 1–0 CHA · CHA 2–0 HUM · HUM 4–0 CHA

Form · last six in Premier League

HUMBLE LIONS

LLLLLD1–2 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 0–5 · 1–4 · 1–1

CHAPELTON

LLLWDL0–3 · 2–7 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Waterhouse	4	+13	10
2	Montego Bay United	4	+4	10
3	Racing United	4	+7	9
4	Tivoli Gardens	4	+5	8
5	Tru-Juice	4	+3	7
6	Cavalier	3	+2	7
7	Portmore United	3	+3	5
8	Arnett Gardens	4	+1	4
9	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	−3	4
10	Chapelton	4	−7	4
11	Molynes United	4	−7	3
12	Treasure Beach	4	−3	2
13	Humble Lions	4	−11	1
14	Dunbeholden	4	−7	0