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Dunbeholden v Molynes United

Dunbeholden

1–0Full time

Molynes United

Premier League · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Dunbeholden 1–0 Molynes United DUNBEHOLDEN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dunbeholden win~~40%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.547

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.626

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dunbeholden win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dunbeholden was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′KICK-OFF Dunbeholden v Molynes United
29′Much as we predicted: Dunbeholden was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–33–31
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
45′SECOND HALF Dunbeholden 0–0 Molynes United
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Dunbeholden 1–0 Molynes United
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Dunbeholden win 32%)
FTFULL TIME Dunbeholden 1–0 Molynes United
FTDunbeholden 1–0 Molynes United · Dunbeholden win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 10 Oct 00:00

Dunbeholden win40%

Draw27%

Molynes United win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dunbeholden

Molynes United

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Molynes United	4	−7	3
14	Dunbeholden	4	−7	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dunbeholden winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market36%

Us40%

~~Market~~36%

We make Dunbeholden a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dunbeholden win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dunbeholden win	40%	36%	+4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Molynes United win	33%	36%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	49%	48%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	71%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	28%	0
Dunbeholden or draw	67%	64%	+3
Dunbeholden clean sheet	29%	–	–
Molynes United clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.1 8.2 5.6 2.4 1 9.2 12.7 7.4 3.2 2 6.9 8.3 5.1 2.2 3 3.3 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dunbeholden down, Molynes United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,184 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 2.54 goals a meeting; 5 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dunbeholden at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Molynes United away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Dunbeholden, 1.26 for Molynes United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.54

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 13

~~Both scored~~6 of 13

~~Last meetings~~DUN 1–0 MOL · DUN 1–1 MOL · MOL 0–2 DUN · DUN 0–2 MOL

Form · last six in Premier League

DUNBEHOLDEN

LLLLLL0–5 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

MOLYNES UNITED

LWWLLL0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Waterhouse	4	+13	10
2	Montego Bay United	4	+4	10
3	Racing United	4	+7	9
4	Tivoli Gardens	4	+5	8
5	Tru-Juice	4	+3	7
6	Cavalier	3	+2	7
7	Portmore United	3	+3	5
8	Arnett Gardens	4	+1	4
9	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	−3	4
10	Chapelton	4	−7	4
11	Molynes United	4	−7	3
12	Treasure Beach	4	−3	2
13	Humble Lions	4	−11	1
14	Dunbeholden	4	−7	0