Chapelton v Treasure Beach prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:30

Chapelton 1–0 Treasure Beach CHAPELTON WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chapelton win~~36%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.614

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.373

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chapelton win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chapelton was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
1′KICK-OFF Chapelton v Treasure Beach
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Chapelton win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Chapelton 0–0 Treasure Beach
45′SECOND HALF Chapelton 0–0 Treasure Beach
56′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 26–48–26
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Chapelton win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
61′We said Chapelton at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
70′We said Chapelton at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–61–19
75′A goal for Chapelton on 75′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Chapelton 1–0 Treasure Beach
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Chapelton win: 36% at kick-off, 84% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Chapelton win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
77′We published Chapelton at 36%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Chapelton win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
83′We published Chapelton at 36%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–8–0
88′We published Chapelton at 36%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Chapelton at 36% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Chapelton win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Chapelton 1–0 Treasure Beach
FTChapelton 1–0 Treasure Beach · Chapelton win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Chapelton just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Chapelton 36%, draw 28%, Treasure Beach 36%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Chapelton v Treasure BeachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Chapelton win36%

Draw28%

Treasure Beach win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chapelton

Treasure Beach

7Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

Last match: 4 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Chapelton	5	−7	5
13	Treasure Beach	4	−3	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chapelton winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

36% The market50%

Us36%

~~Market~~50%

We make Chapelton a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chapelton v Treasure Beach~~1.28 – 1.28

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 2~~8 v 13

~~The market · Chapelton win~~50% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chapelton win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chapelton win	36%	50%	−14
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Treasure Beach win	36%	24%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	32%	−6
Chapelton or draw	64%	76%	−12
Chapelton clean sheet	29%	–	–
Treasure Beach clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.0 9.2 6.3 2.7 1 9.3 13.1 7.7 3.4 2 6.4 7.8 4.9 2.1 3 2.8 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chapelton down, Treasure Beach across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chapelton at home: 1.83 scored, 3.67 conceded a game (last 6). Treasure Beach away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Chapelton, 1.28 for Treasure Beach. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TRE 0–3 CHA · CHA 2–0 TRE · TRE 0–1 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

CHAPELTON

LWDLD0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 0–0

TREASURE BEACH

LDLD2–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montego Bay United	5	+6	13
2	Racing United	5	+8	12
3	Waterhouse	5	+13	11
4	Tivoli Gardens	5	+4	8
5	Tru-Juice	5	+3	8
6	Cavalier	4	0	7
7	Portmore United	3	+3	5
8	Chapelton	5	−7	5
9	Arnett Gardens	4	+1	4
10	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	−3	4
11	Dunbeholden	5	−6	3
12	Molynes United	5	−8	3
13	Treasure Beach	4	−3	2
14	Humble Lions	5	−11	2