Cavalier v Tivoli Gardens prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CavalierDrawTivoli Gardens

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cavalier 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cavalier are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cavalier 53%, draw 25%, Tivoli Gardens 22%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Cavalier v Tivoli GardensBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Cavalier win53%

Draw25%

Tivoli Gardens win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cavalier

Tivoli Gardens

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Jamaica)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Tivoli Gardens	6	+7	11
7	Cavalier	5	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cavalier winFirst published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Cavalier a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cavalier v Tivoli Gardens~~1.76 – 1.03

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cavalier win	53%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Tivoli Gardens win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Cavalier or draw	78%	–	–
Cavalier clean sheet	36%	–	–
Tivoli Gardens clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.2 5.9 3.4 1 10.3 11.6 5.6 2 9.4 9.3 4.8 3 5.5 5.5 2.8 4 2.5 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cavalier down, Tivoli Gardens across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,195 Premier League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.7% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cavalier at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Tivoli Gardens away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Cavalier, 1.03 for Tivoli Gardens. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TIV 0–2 CAV · CAV 1–2 TIV · TIV 0–2 CAV · TIV 1–1 CAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 13 Sept

CAVALIER

WWDLL2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

TIVOLI GARDENS

WDDWLW3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Montego Bay United	6	+6	14
2	Racing United	6	+8	13
3	Waterhouse	6	+13	12
4	Tivoli Gardens	6	+7	11
5	Tru-Juice	6	+7	11
6	Chapelton	6	−6	8
7	Cavalier	5	−1	7
8	Molynes United	6	−7	6
9	Portmore United	3	+3	5
10	Arnett Gardens	5	+1	5
11	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	−3	4
12	Dunbeholden	6	−9	3
13	Treasure Beach	5	−4	2
14	Humble Lions	6	−15	2