Cavalier v Montego Bay United prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Cavalier 1–3 Montego Bay United CAVALIER WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cavalier win~~40%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.693

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.506

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cavalier win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cavalier 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
22′Montego Bay United ahead on 17′ through D. Brown. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–23–62
28′Montego Bay United ahead on 17′ through D. Brown. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–23–63
43′D. Merrick scores for Montego Bay United on 37′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
47′We said Cavalier at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
48′We said Cavalier at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
49′We said Cavalier at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Montego Bay United win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Cavalier win 2%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Cavalier win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Montego Bay United win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Cavalier win 2%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Cavalier win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Montego Bay United win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Cavalier win 2%)
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Cavalier win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Montego Bay United win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Cavalier win 2%)
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Cavalier win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Montego Bay United win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Cavalier win 2%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Cavalier win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Montego Bay United win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Cavalier win 2%)
FTFULL TIME Cavalier 1–3 Montego Bay United
FTCavalier 1–3 Montego Bay United · Cavalier win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 10 Oct 00:00

Cavalier win40%

Draw27%

Montego Bay United win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cavalier

Montego Bay United

6Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Montego Bay United	4	+4	10
6	Cavalier	3	+2	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cavalier winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market30%

Us40%

~~Market~~30%

We make Cavalier a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cavalier win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cavalier win	40%	30%	+10
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Montego Bay United win	32%	42%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	49%	47%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	71%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	26%	+1
Cavalier or draw	68%	58%	+9
Cavalier clean sheet	30%	–	–
Montego Bay United clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 8.2 5.5 2.3 1 9.4 12.7 7.4 3.1 2 7.0 8.4 5.1 2.2 3 3.3 4.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cavalier down, Montego Bay United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,184 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cavalier at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Montego Bay United away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Cavalier, 1.24 for Montego Bay United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 14

~~Both scored~~5 of 14

~~Last meetings~~MON 0–2 CAV · CAV 0–1 MON · MON 3–1 CAV · MON 1–0 CAV

Form · last six in Premier League

CAVALIER

LWDWWD0–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

MONTEGO BAY UNITED

LLWDWW0–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Waterhouse	4	+13	10
2	Montego Bay United	4	+4	10
3	Racing United	4	+7	9
4	Tivoli Gardens	4	+5	8
5	Tru-Juice	4	+3	7
6	Cavalier	3	+2	7
7	Portmore United	3	+3	5
8	Arnett Gardens	4	+1	4
9	Mount Pleasant Academy	4	−3	4
10	Chapelton	4	−7	4
11	Molynes United	4	−7	3
12	Treasure Beach	4	−3	2
13	Humble Lions	4	−11	1
14	Dunbeholden	4	−7	0