US Tchologo v Stade d'Abidjan prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

US TchologoDrawStade d'Abidjan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Stade d'Abidjan 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade d'Abidjan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: US Tchologo 27%, draw 28%, Stade d'Abidjan 45%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on US Tchologo v Stade d'AbidjanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

US Tchologo win27%

Draw28%

Stade d'Abidjan win45%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

US Tchologo

Stade d'Abidjan

5Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stade d'abidjan winFirst published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Stade d'Abidjan a 45% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · US Tchologo v Stade d'Abidjan~~0.90 – 1.27

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 8~~10 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
US Tchologo win	27%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Stade d'Abidjan win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
US Tchologo or draw	55%	–	–
US Tchologo clean sheet	28%	–	–
Stade d'Abidjan clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.8%

0123450 11.5 14.8 9.2 3.9 1 10.6 12.6 8.1 3.5 2 4.6 5.8 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+US Tchologo down, Stade d'Abidjan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,268 Ligue 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.0% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

US Tchologo at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stade d'Abidjan away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for US Tchologo, 1.27 for Stade d'Abidjan. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UST 2–1 STA · STA 1–0 UST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 26 Sept

US TCHOLOGO

DLDD0–0 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 0–0

STADE D'ABIDJAN

DDWW0–0 · 1–1 · 6–5 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade d'Abidjan	4	+3	8
2	Yamoussoukro	4	+3	8
3	SOA	3	+2	7
4	SOL	4	+1	7
5	ES Agboville	4	+1	7
6	Zoman	5	−1	7
7	Mouna	5	−1	7
8	San-Pédro	3	+4	6
9	ISCA	3	0	4
10	US Tchologo	4	−2	3
11	Bouaké	3	−3	3
12	Korhogo	3	−1	2
13	AFAD	3	−1	2
14	Stella	3	−1	2
15	ASEC Mimosas	3	−1	2
16	Adiake	4	−3	1