Stella v AFAD prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

StellaDrawAFAD

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · AFAD 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AFAD are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stella 27%, draw 31%, AFAD 43%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Stella v AFADBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Stella win27%

Draw31%

AFAD win43%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stella

AFAD

18Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	AFAD	3	−1	2
14	Stella	3	−1	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afad winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make AFAD a 43% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.1, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stella v AFAD~~0.81 – 1.11

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D2 L1 · W0 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 2~~14 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stella win	27%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
AFAD win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Stella or draw	57%	–	–
Stella clean sheet	33%	–	–
AFAD clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.5%

0123450 14.8 16.5 9.0 3.4 1 12.2 12.7 7.2 2.7 2 4.8 5.2 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stella down, AFAD across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,266 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stella at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). AFAD away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.81 goals for Stella, 1.11 for AFAD. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STE 1–2 AFA · AFA 2–0 STE · AFA 0–0 STE · STE 0–1 AFA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept

STELLA

LDD1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

AFAD

LDD1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade d'Abidjan	4	+3	8
2	Yamoussoukro	4	+3	8
3	SOA	3	+2	7
4	SOL	4	+1	7
5	ES Agboville	4	+1	7
6	Zoman	5	−1	7
7	Mouna	5	−1	7
8	San-Pédro	3	+4	6
9	ISCA	3	0	4
10	US Tchologo	4	−2	3
11	Bouaké	3	−3	3
12	Korhogo	3	−1	2
13	AFAD	3	−1	2
14	Stella	3	−1	2
15	ASEC Mimosas	3	−1	2
16	Adiake	4	−3	1