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SOL v Stade d'Abidjan

SOL
5–6Full time
Stade d'Abidjan

Ligue 1 · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 19:01
SOL 5–6 Stade d'Abidjan STADE D'ABIDJAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Stade d'Abidjan win47%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.424
The market’s Brier score0.657

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 39 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Stade d'Abidjan win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Stade d'Abidjan was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 26–27–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SOL v Stade d'Abidjan
  4. 8′We published Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 9–17–74
  5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' SOL 0–1 Stade d'Abidjan
  6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
  7. 12′We published Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. Our model now makes it 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
  8. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' SOL 0–2 Stade d'Abidjan
  9. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 92% now
  10. 27′We published Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 7–18–75
  11. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' SOL 1–2 Stade d'Abidjan
  12. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
  13. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 7–18–75
  14. 34′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–94
  15. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' SOL 1–3 Stade d'Abidjan
  16. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
  17. 40′We published Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–4 · 0–1–99
  18. 40′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–1–99
  19. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' SOL 1–4 Stade d'Abidjan
  20. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
  21. 45′HALF-TIME SOL 3–4 Stade d'Abidjan
  22. 45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' SOL
  23. 45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Stade d'Abidjan
  24. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 36% now
  25. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Stade d'Abidjan win 36%)
  26. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' SOL 3–4 Stade d'Abidjan
  27. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
  28. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Stade d'Abidjan win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
  29. 46′6 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 1–4–95
  30. 46′We said Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 22–42–35 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  31. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' SOL 2–4 Stade d'Abidjan
  32. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
  33. 46′SECOND HALF SOL 3–4 Stade d'Abidjan
  34. 48′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–4 · 4–17–78
  35. 48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' SOL 3–4 Stade d'Abidjan
  36. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
  37. 50′We said Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–45–34 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  38. 51′8 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–4 · 21–45–33
  39. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' SOL 4–4 Stade d'Abidjan
  40. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 33% now
  41. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Stade d'Abidjan win 33%)
  42. 53′That is 9, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 4–5 · 4–17–79
  43. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' SOL 4–5 Stade d'Abidjan
  44. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
  45. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Stade d'Abidjan win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
  46. 55′We published Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 4–5 · 4–17–80
  47. 68′We said Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–60–24 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  48. 69′We published Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 4–5 · 2–14–85
  49. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  50. 80′We said Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 9–78–13 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  51. 81′10 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 5–5 · 8–80–12
  52. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' SOL 5–5 Stade d'Abidjan
  53. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 12% now
  54. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Stade d'Abidjan win 12%)
  55. 84′We said Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 5–5 · 6–86–8
  56. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  57. 90′We said Stade d'Abidjan at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 5–5 · 3–92–4
  58. 93′That is 11, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 5–6 · 0–2–98
  59. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' SOL 5–6 Stade d'Abidjan
  60. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Stade d'Abidjan win: 47% at kick-off, 98% now
  61. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Stade d'Abidjan win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  62. FTFULL TIME SOL 5–6 Stade d'Abidjan
  63. FTSOL 5–6 Stade d'Abidjan · Stade d'Abidjan win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade d'Abidjan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SOL 27%, draw 26%, Stade d'Abidjan 47%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on SOL v Stade d'AbidjanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 10:00 · locked at kick-off

SOL win27%
Draw26%
Stade d'Abidjan win47%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SOL

Stade d'Abidjan

4Days since last match5
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5SOL2+26
9Stade d'Abidjan202

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stade d'abidjan winFirst published 15 Oct 10:00 · locked at kick-off
47% The market34%
Us47%
Market34%

We make Stade d'Abidjan a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SOL v Stade d'Abidjan0.98 – 1.40
Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 26 SeptW2 D0 L0 · W0 D2 L0
Table places · points 6 v 25 v 9
The market · Stade d'Abidjan win34% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 15 OCT 10:1015 OCT 16:06
Our probability · Stade d'Abidjan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SOL win27%34%−7
Draw26%32%−6
Stade d'Abidjan win47%34%+13
Over 2.5 goals43%34%+9
Both teams to score47%42%+5
Over 1.5 goals68%59%+9
Over 3.5 goals22%17%+5
SOL or draw53%66%−13
SOL clean sheet25%––
Stade d'Abidjan clean sheet38%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.1%
0123450 9.2 13.1 9.0 4.3 1 9.3 12.3 8.7 4.1 2 4.5 6.1 4.3 2.0 3 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+SOL down, Stade d'Abidjan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.38
Over 2.53 of 8
Both scored5 of 8
Last meetingsSTA 1–1 SOL · SOL 0–3 STA · SOL 1–4 STA · STA 1–0 SOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 26 Sept

SOL

WW1–0 · 1–0

STADE D'ABIDJAN

DD0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Yamoussoukro3+37
2SOA3+27
3Zoman3+27
4San-Pédro3+46
5SOL2+26
6ES Agboville2+14
7ISCA304
8Bouaké3−33
9Stade d'Abidjan202
10Korhogo3−12
11AFAD3−12
12Stella3−12
13ASEC Mimosas3−12
14US Tchologo3−22
15Mouna3−31
16Adiake2−20

The competition's standings before kick-off.