SOL v ES Agboville prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46

SOL 1–2 ES Agboville ES AGBOVILLE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ES Agboville win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.600

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with ES Agboville just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: SOL 35%, draw 28%, ES Agboville 37%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on SOL v ES AgbovilleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 11:32 · locked at kick-off

SOL win35%

Draw28%

ES Agboville win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SOL

ES Agboville

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

Last match: 19 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	SOL	4	+1	7
5	ES Agboville	4	+1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · es agboville winFirst published 23 Oct 11:32 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make ES Agboville a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SOL v ES Agboville~~1.13 – 1.16

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~4 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SOL win	35%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
ES Agboville win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
SOL or draw	63%	–	–
SOL clean sheet	32%	–	–
ES Agboville clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 10.1 12.0 6.8 2.7 1 11.7 12.8 7.6 3.0 2 6.4 7.3 4.3 3 2.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SOL down, ES Agboville across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,266 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SOL at home: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). ES Agboville away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for SOL, 1.16 for ES Agboville. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SOL 1–3 ESA · ESA 0–1 SOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept

SOL

WWLD1–0 · 1–0 · 5–6 · 1–1

ES AGBOVILLE

WDWL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade d'Abidjan	4	+3	8
2	Yamoussoukro	4	+3	8
3	SOA	3	+2	7
4	SOL	4	+1	7
5	ES Agboville	4	+1	7
6	Zoman	5	−1	7
7	Mouna	5	−1	7
8	San-Pédro	3	+4	6
9	ISCA	3	0	4
10	US Tchologo	4	−2	3
11	Bouaké	3	−3	3
12	Korhogo	3	−1	2
13	AFAD	3	−1	2
14	Stella	3	−1	2
15	ASEC Mimosas	3	−1	2
16	Adiake	4	−3	1