San-Pédro v SOA prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San-PédroDrawSOA

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · San-Pédro 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San-Pédro are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San-Pédro 40%, draw 29%, SOA 31%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on San-Pédro v SOABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

San-Pédro win40%

Draw29%

SOA win31%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San-Pédro

SOA

12Days since last match17

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	SOA	3	+2	7
8	San-Pédro	3	+4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san-pédro winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make San-Pédro a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San-Pédro v SOA~~1.16 – 0.98

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San-Pédro win	40%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
SOA win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
San-Pédro or draw	69%	–	–
San-Pédro clean sheet	38%	–	–
SOA clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 11.7 11.8 5.7 1 13.9 12.9 6.5 2.1 2 7.9 7.6 3.7 3 3.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San-Pédro down, SOA across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,268 Ligue 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.0% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San-Pédro at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). SOA away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for San-Pédro, 0.98 for SOA. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–0 SOA · SOA 1–2 SAN · SOA 0–0 SAN · SAN 4–1 SOA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept

SAN-PÉDRO

LWW0–1 · 2–0 · 3–0

SOA

WDW2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ES Agboville	5	+2	10
2	Stade d'Abidjan	4	+3	8
3	Yamoussoukro	4	+3	8
4	SOA	3	+2	7
5	SOL	5	0	7
6	Zoman	5	−1	7
7	Mouna	5	−1	7
8	San-Pédro	3	+4	6
9	ISCA	3	0	4
10	Adiake	5	−2	4
11	US Tchologo	4	−2	3
12	Bouaké	4	−4	3
13	Korhogo	3	−1	2
14	AFAD	3	−1	2
15	Stella	3	−1	2
16	ASEC Mimosas	3	−1	2