Mouna v Zoman prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

Mouna 1–0 Zoman MOUNA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Mouna win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.561

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mouna are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mouna 39%, draw 29%, Zoman 32%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Mouna v ZomanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 11:32 · locked at kick-off

Mouna win39%

Draw29%

Zoman win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mouna

Zoman

4Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Zoman	4	0	7
9	Mouna	4	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mouna winFirst published 23 Oct 11:32 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Mouna a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mouna v Zoman~~1.12 – 0.98

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~9 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mouna win	39%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Zoman win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Mouna or draw	68%	–	–
Mouna clean sheet	38%	–	–
Zoman clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 12.2 12.2 5.9 1 13.9 13.0 6.5 2.2 2 7.7 7.4 3.6 3 2.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mouna down, Zoman across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,265 Ligue 1 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mouna at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Zoman away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Mouna, 0.98 for Zoman. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ZOM 1–3 MOU · MOU 2–2 ZOM · ZOM 2–2 MOU · MOU 1–2 ZOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 26 Sept

MOUNA

DLLW0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

ZOMAN

WDWL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade d'Abidjan	4	+3	8
2	Yamoussoukro	4	+3	8
3	SOA	3	+2	7
4	SOL	4	+1	7
5	ES Agboville	4	+1	7
6	Zoman	4	0	7
7	San-Pédro	3	+4	6
8	ISCA	3	0	4
9	Mouna	4	−2	4
10	US Tchologo	4	−2	3
11	Bouaké	3	−3	3
12	Korhogo	3	−1	2
13	AFAD	3	−1	2
14	Stella	3	−1	2
15	ASEC Mimosas	3	−1	2
16	Adiake	4	−3	1