Mouna v SOL prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Mouna 0–1 SOL MOUNA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mouna win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.672

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 10 Oct 00:00

Mouna win41%

Draw26%

SOL win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mouna

SOL

5Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	SOL	1	+1	3
14	Mouna	2	−2	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mouna winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Mouna a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mouna win	41%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
SOL win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Mouna or draw	66%	–	–
Mouna clean sheet	29%	–	–
SOL clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.3 9.2 5.6 2.3 1 10.3 12.1 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.5 5.2 2.2 3 3.3 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mouna down, SOL across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,254 Ligue 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mouna at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). SOL away: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Mouna, 1.24 for SOL. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SOL 0–6 MOU · MOU 0–1 SOL · MOU 2–0 SOL · SOL 1–2 MOU

Form · last six in Ligue 1

MOUNA

WDLWDL3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

SOL

WLWWLW2–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	San-Pédro	3	+4	6
2	Yamoussoukro	2	+3	6
3	SOA	2	+1	4
4	ES Agboville	2	+1	4
5	Zoman	2	+1	4
6	ISCA	2	+1	4
7	SOL	1	+1	3
8	Bouaké	3	−3	3
9	Stade d'Abidjan	2	0	2
10	AFAD	3	−1	2
11	ASEC Mimosas	3	−1	2
12	Korhogo	2	−1	1
13	Stella	2	−1	1
14	Mouna	2	−2	1
15	US Tchologo	2	−2	1
16	Adiake	1	−1	0