ISCA v Stella prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ISCADrawStella

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Stella 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stella are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ISCA 26%, draw 34%, Stella 40%. Over 2.5 goals 22%, both teams to score 30%.

The AI’s read on ISCA v StellaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

ISCA win26%

Draw34%

Stella win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ISCA

Stella

13Days since last match14

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	ISCA	3	0	4
15	Stella	3	−1	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stella winFirst published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Stella a 40% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ISCA v Stella~~0.68 – 0.94

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W0 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 2~~9 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ISCA win	26%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Stella win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	22%	–	–
Both teams to score	30%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	48%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	8%	–	–
ISCA or draw	60%	–	–
ISCA clean sheet	39%	–	–
Stella clean sheet	51%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.8%

0123450 19.8 18.7 8.7 2.8 1 13.7 12.2 5.8 2 4.6 4.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ISCA down, Stella across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,268 Ligue 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.0% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ISCA at home: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Stella away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.68 goals for ISCA, 0.94 for Stella. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~STE 1–1 ISC · ISC 0–1 STE · ISC 0–1 STE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept

ISCA

DWL0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

STELLA

LDD1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ES Agboville	5	+2	10
2	Stade d'Abidjan	4	+3	8
3	Yamoussoukro	4	+3	8
4	SOA	3	+2	7
5	SOL	5	0	7
6	Zoman	5	−1	7
7	Mouna	5	−1	7
8	San-Pédro	3	+4	6
9	ISCA	3	0	4
10	Adiake	5	−2	4
11	US Tchologo	4	−2	3
12	Bouaké	4	−4	3
13	Korhogo	3	−1	2
14	AFAD	3	−1	2
15	Stella	3	−1	2
16	ASEC Mimosas	3	−1	2