Bouaké v Korhogo prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BouakéDrawKorhogo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Korhogo 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Korhogo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bouaké 34%, draw 30%, Korhogo 36%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Bouaké v KorhogoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bouaké win34%

Draw30%

Korhogo win36%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bouaké

Korhogo

5Days since last match12

Last match: 24 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Bouaké	3	−3	3
12	Korhogo	3	−1	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · korhogo winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Korhogo a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bouaké v Korhogo~~0.98 – 1.03

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D0 L3 · W0 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 2~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bouaké win	34%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Korhogo win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Bouaké or draw	64%	–	–
Bouaké clean sheet	36%	–	–
Korhogo clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.0%

0123450 13.4 14.0 7.1 2.5 1 13.4 13.0 6.8 2.4 2 6.5 6.5 3.4 3 2.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bouaké down, Korhogo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,266 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bouaké at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Korhogo away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Bouaké, 1.03 for Korhogo. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KOR 0–1 BOU · BOU 0–0 KOR · BOU 0–0 KOR · KOR 0–0 BOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept

BOUAKÉ

WLLL2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–2

KORHOGO

LDD0–1 · 1–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade d'Abidjan	4	+3	8
2	Yamoussoukro	4	+3	8
3	SOA	3	+2	7
4	SOL	4	+1	7
5	ES Agboville	4	+1	7
6	Zoman	5	−1	7
7	Mouna	5	−1	7
8	San-Pédro	3	+4	6
9	ISCA	3	0	4
10	US Tchologo	4	−2	3
11	Bouaké	3	−3	3
12	Korhogo	3	−1	2
13	AFAD	3	−1	2
14	Stella	3	−1	2
15	ASEC Mimosas	3	−1	2
16	Adiake	4	−3	1