Adiake v Bouaké prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Adiake 2–1 Bouaké BOUAKÉ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bouaké win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.702

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bouaké just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Adiake 32%, draw 32%, Bouaké 36%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Adiake v BouakéBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 11:32 · locked at kick-off

Adiake win32%

Draw32%

Bouaké win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Adiake

Bouaké

4Days since last match14

Last match: 20 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Bouaké	3	−3	3
16	Adiake	4	−3	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bouaké winFirst published 23 Oct 11:32 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Bouaké a 36% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Adiake v Bouaké~~0.87 – 0.96

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~16 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Adiake win	32%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Bouaké win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Adiake or draw	64%	–	–
Adiake clean sheet	39%	–	–
Bouaké clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.0%

0123450 16.0 15.6 7.4 2.4 1 14.2 12.9 6.3 2.1 2 6.1 5.7 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Adiake down, Bouaké across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,266 Ligue 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Adiake at home: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Bouaké away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Adiake, 0.96 for Bouaké. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 27 Sept

ADIAKE

LLLD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

BOUAKÉ

WLL2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade d'Abidjan	4	+3	8
2	Yamoussoukro	4	+3	8
3	SOA	3	+2	7
4	SOL	4	+1	7
5	ES Agboville	4	+1	7
6	Zoman	5	−1	7
7	Mouna	5	−1	7
8	San-Pédro	3	+4	6
9	ISCA	3	0	4
10	US Tchologo	4	−2	3
11	Bouaké	3	−3	3
12	Korhogo	3	−1	2
13	AFAD	3	−1	2
14	Stella	3	−1	2
15	ASEC Mimosas	3	−1	2
16	Adiake	4	−3	1