Vibonese v Gela prediction · Serie D - Girone I

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Vibonese 1–1 Gela VIBONESE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vibonese win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.884

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vibonese win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vibonese 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–26–20
1′KICK-OFF Vibonese v Gela
8′Vibonese find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
8′We said Vibonese at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Vibonese 1–0 Gela
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Vibonese win: 54% at kick-off, 80% now
9′GOAL DISALLOWED · 9' Vibonese
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Vibonese win: 54% at kick-off, 52% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Vibonese win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
42′We said Vibonese at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–39–19
45′HALF-TIME Vibonese 0–0 Gela
46′SECOND HALF Vibonese 0–0 Gela
49′We said Vibonese at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Vibonese win 38%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–47–17
57′Vibonese find the net on 57′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–2
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Vibonese 1–0 Gela
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Vibonese win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Vibonese win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Vibonese win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
62′We said Vibonese at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
68′A goal for Gela on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 27–60–13
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Vibonese 1–1 Gela
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Vibonese win: 54% at kick-off, 27% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Vibonese win 27%)
69′We said Vibonese at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–61–13
69′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 26–61–13
71′We said Vibonese at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–12
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Vibonese win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
76′We said Vibonese at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–10
81′We said Vibonese at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–79–7
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Vibonese win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
85′We said Vibonese at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
91′We said Vibonese at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–2
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Vibonese win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Vibonese 1–1 Gela
FTVibonese 1–1 Gela · Vibonese win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vibonese are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vibonese 54%, draw 26%, Gela 20%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Vibonese v GelaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vibonese win54%

Draw26%

Gela win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 8

VenueStadio Luigi Razza

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vibonese

Gela

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Vibonese	7	+10	14
14	Gela	7	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vibonese winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Vibonese a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vibonese v Gela~~1.60 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 5~~4 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vibonese win	54%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Gela win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Vibonese or draw	80%	–	–
Vibonese clean sheet	42%	–	–
Gela clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 9.3 7.2 3.3 1 13.3 11.8 5.0 2 10.6 9.0 3.9 3 5.7 4.8 2.1 4 2.4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vibonese down, Gela across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,651 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vibonese at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gela away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Vibonese, 0.87 for Gela. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GEL 1–1 VIB · VIB 1–2 GEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 12 Sept

VIBONESE

DLWWWD1–1 · 3–4 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

GELA

WLDLDD2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	7	+14	16
2	Sambiase	7	+6	16
3	Calcio Avola	7	+1	15
4	Vibonese	7	+10	14
5	Licata	7	+1	14
6	Digiesse PraiaTortora	7	+8	12
7	Igea Virtus	7	+2	11
8	Milazzo	7	−3	10
9	Nissa	7	0	9
10	AC Palermo	7	0	8
11	Siracusa	7	+6	7
12	CastrumFavara	7	−1	7
13	Modica	7	−3	7
14	Gela	7	−2	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	7	−9	5
16	Ragusa	7	−5	3
17	Trapani 1905	7	−8	1
18	Enna	7	−17	1