Siracusa v Vigor Lamezia prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Siracusa 3–0 Vigor Lamezia SIRACUSA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Siracusa win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.166

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Siracusa win at 67%.
1′KICK-OFF Siracusa v Vigor Lamezia
3′Little has changed for our model: Siracusa 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–13
5′Little has changed for our model: Siracusa 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–20–13
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Siracusa 1–0 Vigor Lamezia
36′⚽ GOAL · 27' Siracusa 2–0 Vigor Lamezia
39′A goal for Siracusa on 27′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 60% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 60% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 60% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 60% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 60% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Siracusa win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
45′HALF-TIME Siracusa 2–0 Vigor Lamezia
46′SECOND HALF Siracusa 2–0 Vigor Lamezia
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Siracusa 3–0 Vigor Lamezia
90′⚽ GOAL · 25' Siracusa 3–0 Vigor Lamezia
90′⚽ GOAL · 27' Siracusa 3–0 Vigor Lamezia
FTFULL TIME Siracusa 3–0 Vigor Lamezia
FTSiracusa 3–0 Vigor Lamezia · Siracusa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Siracusa win67%

Draw20%

Vigor Lamezia win13%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Nicola De Simone

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Siracusa

Vigor Lamezia

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Siracusa	6	+3	11
15	Vigor Lamezia	6	−6	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · siracusa winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Siracusa a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Siracusa win	67%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Vigor Lamezia win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Siracusa or draw	87%	–	–
Siracusa clean sheet	47%	–	–
Vigor Lamezia clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.1%

0123450 6.4 4.4 1 11.8 9.2 3.6 2 12.1 9.1 3.6 3 8.4 6.3 2.5 4 4.6 3.4 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Siracusa down, Vigor Lamezia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,642 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Siracusa at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Vigor Lamezia away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Siracusa, 0.78 for Vigor Lamezia. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I

SIRACUSA

WDWDWL4–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

VIGOR LAMEZIA

LDDLLW1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	6	+14	15
2	Vibonese	6	+10	13
3	Sambiase	6	+5	13
4	Calcio Avola	6	−1	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	+3	11
6	Siracusa	6	+3	11
7	Licata	6	0	11
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	+4	9
9	Milazzo	6	−3	9
10	AC Palermo	6	+1	8
11	Nissa	6	0	8
12	Modica	6	+1	7
13	Trapani 1905	6	−7	6
14	Gela	6	−2	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	6	−6	5
16	CastrumFavara	6	−2	4
17	Ragusa	6	−5	2
18	Enna	6	−15	1