Siracusa v Trapani 1905 prediction · Serie D

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SiracusaDrawTrapani 1905

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Siracusa 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Siracusa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Siracusa 59%, draw 24%, Trapani 1905 17%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Siracusa v Trapani 1905Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Siracusa win59%

Draw24%

Trapani 1905 win17%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup I · matchday 9

VenueStadio Nicola De Simone

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Siracusa

Trapani 1905

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Siracusa	8	+5	7
16	Trapani 1905	8	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · siracusa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

59% The market47%

Us59%

~~Market~~47%

We make Siracusa a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Siracusa v Trapani 1905~~1.74 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~12 v 16

~~The market · Siracusa win~~47% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Siracusa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Siracusa win	59%	47%	+12
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Trapani 1905 win	17%	25%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	46%	45%	+1
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Siracusa or draw	83%	75%	+8
Siracusa clean sheet	47%	–	–
Trapani 1905 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 9.1 6.2 2.6 1 13.8 10.8 4.2 2 11.8 8.9 3.5 3 6.9 5.2 2.1 4 3.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Siracusa down, Trapani 1905 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,659 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Siracusa at home: 2.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Trapani 1905 away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Siracusa, 0.78 for Trapani 1905. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TRA 2–2 SIR · SIR 3–0 TRA · TRA 1–0 SIR · SIR 0–0 TRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept

SIRACUSA

WDWLWL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–2

TRAPANI 1905

LLWWLW0–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	8	+15	19
2	Sambiase	8	+6	17
3	Licata	8	+2	17
4	Calcio Avola	8	+1	16
5	Vibonese	8	+10	15
6	Igea Virtus	8	+4	14
7	Milazzo	8	−1	13
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	+6	12
9	Nissa	8	−1	9
10	AC Palermo	7	0	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	−6	8
12	Siracusa	8	+5	7
13	CastrumFavara	8	−2	7
14	Modica	7	−3	7
15	Gela	8	−2	6
16	Trapani 1905	8	−7	4
17	Ragusa	8	−7	3
18	Enna	8	−20	1