Sambiase v Trapani 1905 prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Sambiase 1–0 Trapani 1905 SAMBIASE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sambiase win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.451

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sambiase win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sambiase was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Sambiase v Trapani 1905
2′Much as we predicted: Sambiase was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–26
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sambiase win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Sambiase 0–0 Trapani 1905
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sambiase win 36%)
46′SECOND HALF Sambiase 0–0 Trapani 1905
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Sambiase 1–0 Trapani 1905
FTFULL TIME Sambiase 1–0 Trapani 1905
FTSambiase 1–0 Trapani 1905 · Sambiase win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sambiase win45%

Draw28%

Trapani 1905 win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sambiase

Trapani 1905

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sambiase	6	+5	13
13	Trapani 1905	6	−7	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sambiase winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Sambiase a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sambiase win	45%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Trapani 1905 win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Sambiase or draw	73%	–	–
Sambiase clean sheet	40%	–	–
Trapani 1905 clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 11.1 9.5 4.7 1 13.4 12.6 5.9 2 9.0 8.1 3.9 3 4.1 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sambiase down, Trapani 1905 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,642 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sambiase at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Trapani 1905 away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Sambiase, 0.95 for Trapani 1905. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I

SAMBIASE

WDWWWL2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–2

TRAPANI 1905

LLLLWW0–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	6	+14	15
2	Vibonese	6	+10	13
3	Sambiase	6	+5	13
4	Calcio Avola	6	−1	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	+3	11
6	Siracusa	6	+3	11
7	Licata	6	0	11
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	+4	9
9	Milazzo	6	−3	9
10	AC Palermo	6	+1	8
11	Nissa	6	0	8
12	Modica	6	+1	7
13	Trapani 1905	6	−7	6
14	Gela	6	−2	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	6	−6	5
16	CastrumFavara	6	−2	4
17	Ragusa	6	−5	2
18	Enna	6	−15	1