Reggina v Vibonese prediction · Serie D - Girone I

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Reggina 1–1 Vibonese REGGINA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Reggina win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.963

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Reggina win at 61%.
1′KICK-OFF Reggina v Vibonese
3′Little has changed for our model: Reggina 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–24–15
5′Little has changed for our model: Reggina 61% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–25–15
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Reggina 1–0 Vibonese
39′A goal for Reggina on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–2
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 53% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 53% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 53% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 53% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 53% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Reggina win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
45′HALF-TIME Reggina 1–0 Vibonese
46′SECOND HALF Reggina 1–0 Vibonese
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Reggina 1–1 Vibonese
72′🟥 RED CARD · 72' Vibonese
FTFULL TIME Reggina 1–1 Vibonese
FTReggina 1–1 Vibonese · Reggina win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Reggina win61%

Draw24%

Vibonese win15%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Oreste Granillo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Reggina

Vibonese

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	6	+14	15
2	Vibonese	6	+10	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · reggina winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Reggina a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Reggina win	61%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Vibonese win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Reggina or draw	85%	–	–
Reggina clean sheet	51%	–	–
Vibonese clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 10.3 6.4 2.2 1 15.8 10.8 3.6 2 13.1 8.7 3.0 3 7.4 4.9 4 3.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Reggina down, Vibonese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,642 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Reggina at home: 3.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Vibonese away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Reggina, 0.67 for Vibonese. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~REG 3–0 VIB · VIB 0–0 REG · REG 2–1 VIB · VIB 0–1 REG

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I

REGGINA

WWWWWL5–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

VIBONESE

WDLWWW4–0 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	6	+14	15
2	Vibonese	6	+10	13
3	Sambiase	6	+5	13
4	Calcio Avola	6	−1	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	+3	11
6	Siracusa	6	+3	11
7	Licata	6	0	11
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	+4	9
9	Milazzo	6	−3	9
10	AC Palermo	6	+1	8
11	Nissa	6	0	8
12	Modica	6	+1	7
13	Trapani 1905	6	−7	6
14	Gela	6	−2	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	6	−6	5
16	CastrumFavara	6	−2	4
17	Ragusa	6	−5	2
18	Enna	6	−15	1