Ragusa v Vibonese prediction · Serie D - Girone I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RagusaDrawVibonese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Vibonese 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vibonese are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ragusa 31%, draw 31%, Vibonese 38%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Ragusa v ViboneseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ragusa win31%

Draw31%

Vibonese win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup I · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ragusa

Vibonese

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie D - Girone I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Vibonese	8	+10	15
17	Ragusa	8	−7	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vibonese winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market56%

Us38%

~~Market~~56%

We make Vibonese a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ragusa v Vibonese~~0.96 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 15~~17 v 5

~~The market · Vibonese win~~56% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vibonese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ragusa win	31%	19%	+12
Draw	31%	25%	+6
Vibonese win	38%	56%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	34%	47%	−13
Both teams to score	41%	46%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	61%	70%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	16%	28%	−12
Ragusa or draw	62%	44%	+18
Ragusa clean sheet	34%	–	–
Vibonese clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 13.5 13.6 7.7 3.0 1 11.8 13.4 7.1 2.7 2 5.9 6.3 3.4 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ragusa down, Vibonese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,659 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ragusa at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vibonese away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Ragusa, 1.11 for Vibonese. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~1 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RAG 0–0 VIB · VIB 0–1 RAG · RAG 0–1 VIB · VIB 2–0 RAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 16 Sept

RAGUSA

DLLLDL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

VIBONESE

LWWWDD3–4 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	8	+15	19
2	Sambiase	8	+6	17
3	Licata	8	+2	17
4	Calcio Avola	8	+1	16
5	Vibonese	8	+10	15
6	Igea Virtus	8	+4	14
7	Milazzo	8	−1	13
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	+6	12
9	Nissa	8	−1	9
10	AC Palermo	7	0	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	−6	8
12	Siracusa	8	+5	7
13	CastrumFavara	8	−2	7
14	Modica	7	−3	7
15	Gela	8	−2	6
16	Trapani 1905	8	−7	4
17	Ragusa	8	−7	3
18	Enna	8	−20	1