Ragusa v Nissa prediction · Serie D - Girone I

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Ragusa 1–1 Nissa NISSA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nissa win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.749

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nissa win at 42%.
3′Much as we predicted: Nissa was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 28–30–42
5′Much as we predicted: Nissa was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 28–31–42
24′A goal for Ragusa on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–25–14
28′A goal for Ragusa on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–25–13
39′32′ and it is 1–1: Nissa have scored. 1–1 · 24–42–34
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Nissa win: 42% at kick-off, 34% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Ragusa win 24%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Nissa win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Ragusa win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 25%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Nissa win: 42% at kick-off, 34% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Ragusa win 24%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Nissa win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Ragusa win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 25%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Nissa win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Ragusa win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 25%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Nissa win: 42% at kick-off, 34% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Ragusa win 24%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Nissa win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Ragusa win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 25%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Nissa win: 42% at kick-off, 34% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Ragusa win 24%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Nissa win 34%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Nissa win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Ragusa 1–1 Nissa
46′SECOND HALF Ragusa 1–1 Nissa
FTFULL TIME Ragusa 1–1 Nissa
FTRagusa 1–1 Nissa · Nissa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ragusa win28%

Draw30%

Nissa win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ragusa

Nissa

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Nissa	6	0	8
17	Ragusa	6	−5	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nissa winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Nissa a 42% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.2, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ragusa win	28%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Nissa win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Ragusa or draw	58%	–	–
Ragusa clean sheet	31%	–	–
Nissa clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.9 14.3 8.7 3.6 1 10.8 13.0 7.6 3.1 2 5.1 5.9 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ragusa down, Nissa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,642 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ragusa at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nissa away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Ragusa, 1.20 for Nissa. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NIS 1–0 RAG · RAG 0–0 NIS · RAG 3–1 NIS · NIS 0–0 RAG

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I

RAGUSA

DLDLLL2–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

NISSA

WDWLLD3–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	6	+14	15
2	Vibonese	6	+10	13
3	Sambiase	6	+5	13
4	Calcio Avola	6	−1	12
5	Igea Virtus	6	+3	11
6	Siracusa	6	+3	11
7	Licata	6	0	11
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	6	+4	9
9	Milazzo	6	−3	9
10	AC Palermo	6	+1	8
11	Nissa	6	0	8
12	Modica	6	+1	7
13	Trapani 1905	6	−7	6
14	Gela	6	−2	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	6	−6	5
16	CastrumFavara	6	−2	4
17	Ragusa	6	−5	2
18	Enna	6	−15	1