Nissa v Reggina prediction · Serie D - Girone I

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Nissa 1–2 Reggina REGGINA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Reggina win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.557

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Reggina win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Reggina 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 31–30–39
1′KICK-OFF Nissa v Reggina
21′A goal for Reggina on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–71
21′We said Reggina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 9–20–71
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Nissa 0–1 Reggina
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Reggina win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 8–20–72
33′Reggina score on 33′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Nissa 0–2 Reggina
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Reggina win: 39% at kick-off, 92% now
34′We said Reggina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
45′Nissa find the net on 45′. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–19–75
45′We said Reggina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–19–75
45′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 6–19–75
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Nissa 1–2 Reggina
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Reggina win: 39% at kick-off, 75% now
45′HALF-TIME Nissa 1–2 Reggina
46′SECOND HALF Nissa 1–2 Reggina
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Reggina win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
60′We said Reggina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
71′We said Reggina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Reggina win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
86′We said Reggina at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Reggina win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Nissa 1–2 Reggina
FTNissa 1–2 Reggina · Reggina win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Reggina are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nissa 31%, draw 30%, Reggina 39%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Nissa v RegginaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nissa win31%

Draw30%

Reggina win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nissa

Reggina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone I

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · reggina winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Reggina a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nissa v Reggina~~1.00 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 16~~9 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nissa win	31%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Reggina win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Nissa or draw	61%	–	–
Nissa clean sheet	32%	–	–
Reggina clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 12.2 13.0 7.7 3.1 1 11.1 13.3 7.5 3.0 2 5.8 6.5 3.8 3 2.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nissa down, Reggina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,651 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nissa at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Reggina away: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Nissa, 1.16 for Reggina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~NIS 0–0 REG · NIS 1–2 REG · REG 1–0 NIS · REG 3–1 NIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 13 Sept

NISSA

DWLLDD1–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

REGGINA

WWWWLD1–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	7	+14	16
2	Sambiase	7	+6	16
3	Calcio Avola	7	+1	15
4	Vibonese	7	+10	14
5	Licata	7	+1	14
6	Digiesse PraiaTortora	7	+8	12
7	Igea Virtus	7	+2	11
8	Milazzo	7	−3	10
9	Nissa	7	0	9
10	AC Palermo	7	0	8
11	Siracusa	7	+6	7
12	CastrumFavara	7	−1	7
13	Modica	7	−3	7
14	Gela	7	−2	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	7	−9	5
16	Ragusa	7	−5	3
17	Trapani 1905	7	−8	1
18	Enna	7	−17	1