Modica v AC Palermo prediction · Serie D - Girone I

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Modica are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Modica 42%, draw 25%, AC Palermo 34%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Modica v AC PalermoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Modica win42%

Draw25%

AC Palermo win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup I · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Modica

AC Palermo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone I

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	AC Palermo	7	0	8
13	Modica	7	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · modica winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Modica a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Modica v AC Palermo~~1.55 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~13 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Modica win	42%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
AC Palermo win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Modica or draw	66%	–	–
Modica clean sheet	26%	–	–
AC Palermo clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.2 7.3 5.1 2.4 1 8.3 11.5 7.5 3.5 2 6.5 8.5 5.7 2.6 3 3.4 4.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Modica down, AC Palermo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,651 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Modica at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). AC Palermo away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Modica, 1.37 for AC Palermo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 13 Sept

MODICA

LLWLWL0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–5

AC PALERMO

WDLWDL3–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	7	+14	16
2	Sambiase	7	+6	16
3	Calcio Avola	7	+1	15
4	Vibonese	7	+10	14
5	Licata	7	+1	14
6	Digiesse PraiaTortora	7	+8	12
7	Igea Virtus	7	+2	11
8	Milazzo	7	−3	10
9	Nissa	7	0	9
10	AC Palermo	7	0	8
11	Siracusa	7	+6	7
12	CastrumFavara	7	−1	7
13	Modica	7	−3	7
14	Gela	7	−2	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	7	−9	5
16	Ragusa	7	−5	3
17	Trapani 1905	7	−8	1
18	Enna	7	−17	1