Milazzo v Digiesse PraiaTortora prediction · Serie D

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Milazzo 3–1 Digiesse PraiaTortora DIGIESSE PRAIATORTORA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Digiesse PraiaTortora win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.723

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Digiesse PraiaTortora win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Digiesse PraiaTortora 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 31–30–39
1′KICK-OFF Milazzo v Digiesse PraiaTortora
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Digiesse PraiaTortora win 34%)
44′A goal for Milazzo on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–23–8
44′We said Digiesse PraiaTortora at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 69–23–8
44′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 69–23–8
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Milazzo 1–0 Digiesse PraiaTortora
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Digiesse PraiaTortora win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Milazzo win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 23%)
45′Milazzo score on 45′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′We said Digiesse PraiaTortora at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+8' Milazzo 2–0 Digiesse PraiaTortora
45′HALF-TIME Milazzo 2–0 Digiesse PraiaTortora
46′SECOND HALF Milazzo 2–0 Digiesse PraiaTortora
96′A goal for Digiesse PraiaTortora on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
96′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Milazzo 3–1 Digiesse PraiaTortora
101′A goal for Digiesse PraiaTortora on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Milazzo 3–1 Digiesse PraiaTortora
FTMilazzo 3–1 Digiesse PraiaTortora · Digiesse PraiaTortora win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Digiesse PraiaTortora are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Milazzo 31%, draw 30%, Digiesse PraiaTortora 39%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Milazzo v Digiesse PraiaTortoraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Milazzo win31%

Draw30%

Digiesse PraiaTortora win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundGroup I · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Milazzo

Digiesse PraiaTortora

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie D - Girone I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Digiesse PraiaTortora	7	+8	12
8	Milazzo	7	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · digiesse praiatortora winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Digiesse PraiaTortora a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Milazzo v Digiesse PraiaTortora~~1.00 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~8 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Milazzo win	31%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Digiesse PraiaTortora win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Milazzo or draw	61%	–	–
Milazzo clean sheet	32%	–	–
Digiesse PraiaTortora clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 12.2 13.0 7.8 3.2 1 11.0 13.2 7.5 3.0 2 5.7 6.5 3.8 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Milazzo down, Digiesse PraiaTortora across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,651 Serie D - Girone I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie D - Girone I matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Milazzo at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Digiesse PraiaTortora away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Milazzo, 1.18 for Digiesse PraiaTortora. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie D - Girone I this season · since 12 Sept

MILAZZO

WWLLWD3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

DIGIESSE PRAIATORTORA

DDDWLW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Reggina	7	+14	16
2	Sambiase	7	+6	16
3	Calcio Avola	7	+1	15
4	Vibonese	7	+10	14
5	Licata	7	+1	14
6	Digiesse PraiaTortora	7	+8	12
7	Igea Virtus	7	+2	11
8	Milazzo	7	−3	10
9	Nissa	7	0	9
10	AC Palermo	7	0	8
11	Siracusa	7	+6	7
12	CastrumFavara	7	−1	7
13	Modica	7	−3	7
14	Gela	7	−2	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	7	−9	5
16	Ragusa	7	−5	3
17	Trapani 1905	7	−8	1
18	Enna	7	−17	1