Igea Virtus v Ragusa

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Igea Virtus win at 55%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Igea Virtus 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–19
3. 1′KICK-OFF Igea Virtus v Ragusa
4. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Igea Virtus win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
5. 42′We said Igea Virtus at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–38–18
6. 45′HALF-TIME Igea Virtus 0–0 Ragusa
7. 46′SECOND HALF Igea Virtus 0–0 Ragusa
8. 52′We said Igea Virtus at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–17
9. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Igea Virtus win 39%)
10. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 37–47–16
11. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Igea Virtus win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
12. 59′We said Igea Virtus at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
13. 65′A goal for Igea Virtus on 65′. 0–0 · 30–56–14
14. 65′We said Igea Virtus at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
15. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Igea Virtus 1–0 Ragusa
16. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Igea Virtus win: 55% at kick-off, 86% now
17. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Igea Virtus win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
18. 75′We said Igea Virtus at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
19. 84′We said Igea Virtus at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
20. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Igea Virtus win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
21. 85′A goal for Ragusa on 84′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–4–0
22. 85′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 95–4–0
23. 85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Igea Virtus 2–1 Ragusa
24. 91′Igea Virtus score on 90′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
25. 91′We said Igea Virtus at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
26. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Igea Virtus 3–1 Ragusa
27. 92′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
28. FTFULL TIME Igea Virtus 3–1 Ragusa
29. FTIgea Virtus 3–1 Ragusa · Igea Virtus win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.